In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.
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Links:
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https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome back
00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses”
02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing?
03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war
07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path?
08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again
09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices
11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference
13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected
15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor
17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court
18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027
20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage?
21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine
24:36 The AI reset and circular finance
26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages
29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly
31:34 What Whalen is watching next
The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
