Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing.
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Links:
Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors
X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168
Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:04 – Gold/silver discussion
02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,600
03:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar
05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks
07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months
10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next
12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends
15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling
19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade
22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis
23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here
26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer
29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery
31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market
35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance
37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel
40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain
