Europe solved a capital problem and created an access problem in the same budget cycle. EU-level defence allocations went from 590 million euros before 2021 to 11.3 billion for 2021-2027, plus up to 150 billion in loans. The money is real. What almost nobody has read is the rulebook that comes with it.

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Why this matters for European founders and investors: This is instalment 7 of The European Scale-Up Question. The first four constraints — growth capital, demand, talent, fragmentation — are emergent market failures nobody wrote down. This fifth one, access, is written into EU legislation and summarised instrument by instrument in Annex 2 of the Court's review. It is the first constraint in the series you can look up, and therefore the first you can plan around.

In this episode:

  • Capital is no longer the only binding constraint — and why that is not the same as capital being solved
  • The four conditions that convert nominal demand into addressable demand
  • Why nineteen member states borrowed under SAFE and two of Europe's wealthiest did not
  • What the eligibility regime means for a pan-European cap table
  • A framework that travels: subsidised markets increasingly carry entry rules

Related episodes: The European Scale-Up Question · Helsing — Europe's 18 Billion Dollar Defence AI Bet

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