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The US midterm elections are fast approaching, and the stakes could hardly be higher for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. With polls painting a grim picture for the president, could his second term be heading towards political gridlock, scandal and even impeachment?
But polls have been wrong before, particularly when it comes to Trump. Just ask Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who famously predicted a Kamala Harris victory on this show, or Professor Allan Lichtman, whose renowned 'Keys Method' also failed to call the last presidential election correctly.
So, with the midterms looming, we're taking a different approach to predicting the outcome.
Instead of relying on traditional polling or political forecasting models, we're turning to prediction markets, including Polymarket, to see what the money says about the battle for control of Congress.
Are prediction markets a more reliable guide to the political future? Can the wisdom of the crowd outperform the pollsters and pundits? And what do the latest market signals tell us about Trump's prospects as Republicans brace for a potentially bruising election?
Piers Morgan is first joined by Brian Kilmeade, author of Uniting the States: Six Crucial Moments That Forged the American Miracle, before welcoming a panel featuring Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace; Professor Jiang, game theorist and host of Predictive History; Lydia Moynihan, New York Post correspondent and commentator; Joe Walsh, host of Social Contract and former Republican Congressman; and Rich Baris, pollster at The People’s Pundit, to debate the stakes of the upcoming US midterm elections and what prediction markets reveal about the political outlook for Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
https://polymarket.us/midterms
Download the Polymarket App today. Deposit $10 and get $25 with code "UNCENSORED" https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/PIERS50
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Brian Kilmeade joins Uncensored
02:00 Brian Kilmeade talks to Piers about his new book ‘Uniting The States’
05:10 The monarchy and Donald Trump
08:30 AD: ETHOS: Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/PIERS. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Trustpilot rating as of 8/1/2026.
09:30 Brian: They’re gonna study Donald Trump forever’
12:15 Brian’s big debate on Fox & Friends over the Trump-Putin diesel deal 18:01 Brian on doing stand up comedy for 10 years
22:58 Piers’ monologue on the upcoming U.S. midterms
25:27 The panel to debate what the prediction market is saying about the U.S. midterms
27:50 Rep. Nancy Mace on the bloodbath the Republicans are going to see
29:14 Professor Jiang gives his predictions on the U.S. midterms
31:35 Joe Walsh on the role of AI in the midterm elections
33:33 Lydia Moynihan’s analysis on the potential of a Republican bloodbath in the midterms
35:18 POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-senate-election-winner
37:28 Will Abdul El Sayed win?
38:10 Professor Jiang on dark money flowing into this election
39:30 ‘The People’s Pundit’ Rich Baris joins the discussion and gives his assessment
39:51 POLYMARKET: Texas Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner
40:15 Elon Musk backing Paxton and James Talarico’s chances
45:05 POLYMARKET: Maine Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winner
47:16 POLYMARKET: South Carolina Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-senate-election-winner
47:43 Lydia Moynihan on Darline Graham Nordone
52:37 If the Republicans lose, what does that mean for Trumpism in 2028?
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