The auto industry didn’t lose USMCA on July 1st. It lost the assumption that the rules would sit still.
The agreement isn’t dead. Nobody packed their boxes. But the US declined to renew the deal as written, and it opened what could be a 10-year renegotiation of the trade framework that governs somewhere between 1.6 and 2 trillion dollars a year, with autos at roughly 18% of that. The proposal on the table increases North American content from 75% to 82%, with half of that produced specifically in the US, and 25% tariffs still in place as leverage.
In this episode, Jan Griffiths and Tom Roberts bring back QAD trade experts Ian Berman and Joshua Guy to separate what actually changed from what only sounds like it did. The headline reads like an attack on trade with Mexico and Canada. Ian reframes it fast: the real target is China and Mexico, as the bridge suppliers have used to skate on tariffs. If you’ve been finding loopholes, this is the light being pointed at them.
Nothing changes tomorrow. That’s the trap. The suppliers who wait for final rules will be doing origin math under deadline pressure that the prepared ones have already finished. Qualifying under the new content thresholds forces every supplier to expose its true bill of materials, and then to know its supplier’s supplier’s supplier. That’s not a sourcing problem first. It’s a data problem first.
Joshua makes the same case from the trade-zone side. Foreign-Trade Zones won’t erase the origin issue, but used well, they’re a lever that mitigates duty exposure, with ROI that usually lands inside year one. 2025 was the largest growth year FTZ usage has seen, and DC is staffing up for another record in 2026. Underneath it all, the hosts keep returning to one message: data quality is the survival trait, systems turn that data into decisions fast enough to matter, and agility is the posture, because the volatility isn’t a phase to wait out.
This episode is a reminder that global trade is not back-office reporting. It is a strategic infrastructure. Leaders who treat it as such gain flexibility, cash flow timing advantages, and margin recovery. Those who do not will absorb the cost and call it unavoidable.
Themes Discussed in This Episode
- What actually changed on July 1, and what didn’t
- Why the new rules target China, with Mexico as the transshipment bridge
- Rising US-content and regional-value thresholds under revised rules of origin
- Origin qualification as a data problem before a sourcing problem
- Knowing your supplier’s supplier’s supplier across the bill of materials
- Clean upstream data as a tier-two competitive advantage
- Foreign-Trade Zones as a duty-mitigation lever, not a loophole around origin
- Moving from reactive compliance to proactive planning before the rules are final
Featured Guest
Name: Ian Berman
Title: Global Trade and Transportation Expert
About: Ian is the Manager of Business Consulting with QAD Supply Chain. Ian has been with QAD for 11 years and has 20 years of experience in global trade and transportation management. He holds a Masters Degree in Supply Chain Management as well as an ASCM CLTD Certification.
Connect: LinkedIn
Name: Joshua Guy
Title: Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) Specialist
About: For more than 25 years, Joshua has worked at the intersection of engineering, product leadership, and global trade, helping organizations bring structure and clarity to complex supply chains. Today, he leads strategy for Foreign-Trade Zone solutions that enable multinational importers to manage tariff exposure, reduce compliance risk, and strengthen financial performance. He also led the development of QAD FTZ, an industry-leading Inventory Control and Recordkeeping System that supports manufacturers, distributors, and 3PLs as they move from reactive compliance to proactive, resilient trade strategy in a volatile global environment.
Connect: LinkedIn
About Your Hosts
Jan Griffiths
Jan is the host and producer of the Auto Supply Chain Champions Podcast and The Automotive Leaders Podcast. A former automotive manufacturing and supply chain executive, Jan is recognized as a Champion for Culture Change in the automotive industry. She brings direct, grounded conversations to leaders navigating execution, disruption, and transformation across the global automotive ecosystem.
Tom Roberts (Co-host)
Tom is Co-host of the Auto Supply Chain Champions Podcast and Vice President of Strategic Industry Development at QAD. He works closely with automotive and industrial manufacturers to close the gap between insight and execution, helping leaders move from visibility to systems of action that drive real operational outcomes.
Episode Highlights
[01:43] Couples Therapy for Your Sourcing Strategy: Jan opens with Pete Mento’s framing of the July 1 news, and the room agrees the metaphor fits: every sourcing decision now comes with an asterisk.
[02:39] The Real Target Isn’t Mexico: Ian reframes the headline. This is aimed at China and the Mexican bridge suppliers have used to skate tariffs, not at North American trade itself.
[03:57] A Light on the True Bill of Materials: New content thresholds force origin math that exposes what a product is actually made of, and pushes visibility down to the supplier’s supplier’s supplier.
[04:40] Tier Two Data Becomes an Advantage: Josh makes the case that clean, auditable upstream data is what separates the suppliers who survive this from the ones who scramble.
[05:19] The Data Sensitivity Problem: Tom names the tension: OEMs want deeper visibility, and tier ones are wary of exposing their supply base and origin data outside their four walls.
[09:02] FTZ as a Tool in the Toolbox: Josh explains what Foreign-Trade Zones can and can’t do. They won’t erase the origin issue, but they mitigate duty exposure in export-heavy flows.
[11:06] A Record Year for Foreign-Trade Zones: 2025 was the largest FTZ growth year yet, and the DC board is staffing up for another record in 2026. Awareness of the lever is finally catching up.
[13:04] The ROI Is a No-Brainer: Josh walks Tom through the math: most companies recoup FTZ setup and software costs inside year one or two, before the deeper savings even count.
[15:50] Rules of Origin, in Plain Terms: Ian breaks down what a rule of origin actually is and why knowing your biggest BOM cost line matters more than any headline percentage.
[19:48] Stress-Test the BOM Now: Jan lays out the starting move: run 82% regional and 50% US content against your bill of materials, prioritize the parts, then build the action plan.
[22:32] The Monday-Morning Playbook: Ian, Josh, and Tom close on three moves: baseline your data, put systems in place, and stay agile, because the volatility isn’t slowing down.
Top Quotes
[04:15] Ian Berman: “ If you're not doing FTA calculations and origin determinations today, my guess is you'll be doing them tomorrow because that's what's really gonna be tied in if you wanna keep being able to use these aspects.”
[12:29] Joshua Guy: “You might not be able to get the full savings that you once might have had, but you can use these different tools available to squeeze out just enough margin to stay competitive.”
[22:11] Jan Griffiths: “It's about reducing those decision-making cycle times, being able to grab the situation, grab the ball, and pivot and move with it quickly.”
[24:40] Tom Roberts: “You got to have great data, and you got to make some decisions, and it's something you can't leave behind. You can't just kinda wait it out. It's good to get in front of it now.”
Follow the Auto Supply Chain Champions Podcast for real conversations with leaders who are making hard choices, focusing their bets, and leading with intent.
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