Earnings vs. Geopolitics

This week's earnings season begins against a far more challenging backdrop than investors expected just days ago. While SK Hynix's record US debut highlights the market's relentless appetite for AI, the sharp swings in memory chip stocks are a reminder that semiconductor cycles have not disappeared. Attention now turns to major US banks, ASML and TSMC, where strong earnings are widely expected—but will they be enough to satisfy investors? At the same time, renewed Middle East tensions are driving oil prices and bond yields higher, raising fresh inflation concerns just as markets await the latest US CPI figures and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semi-annual testimony. With expectations already priced for perfection, this reporting season could be defined less by the earnings themselves than by how investors react to them.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.