Lara Krinsky opens this briefing by noting a week of deadlines, threats, and quiet repositioning from China to Lebanon to Iran, then welcomes Dr. Mordechai Kedar to unpack the psychology driving events beneath the headlines. Kedar argues President Trump is approaching a “T-junction” on Iran—torn between domestic pressure to avoid another long war and the risk of looking weak after weeks of strikes if Iran still refuses to bend and keeps threatening the Strait of Hormuz. He says Iran’s leadership operates under a jihadist logic in which surrender is not an option, and that even major damage to air and naval capabilities doesn’t necessarily destabilize the regime because internal control depends mainly on security forces with rifles. The conversation then shifts to a provocative alternative to the traditional two-state model: Kedar advocates “emirates” in Judea and Samaria—locally clan-based city-states (Hebron, Nablus, Jericho, etc.) that could declare independence from the Palestinian Authority and potentially join a normalization framework like the Abraham Accords. He argues nationalism is a recent and fragile glue in the region and that the PA’s legitimacy relies on anti-Israel incitement, while clan structures are the durable social unit and therefore could govern without needing perpetual conflict. He closes by warning that Qatar’s money and media ecosystem (including Al Jazeera and funding of Western institutions) shapes global narratives, and Lara ends with a call to support Israel’s soldiers and security forces through FIDF.
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