Some inventions and discoveries make the inventive process itself more efficient. One such class of invention is the prediction technology. These can take a lot of forms. AI is one example of a technology that can help scientists and inventors make better predictions about what is worth trying as a candidate solution to a problem, but as we’ll see, there are many other kinds of prediction technology as well.

This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial version of the) article Prediction Technologies and Innovation, originally published on New Things Under the Sun.

Articles mentioned:
Hoelzemann, Johannes, Gustavo Manso, Abhishek Nagaraj, and Matteo Tranchero. 2024. The streetlight effect in data-driven exploration. NBER Working Paper 32401. https://doi.org/10.3386/w32401

Kim, Soomi. 2023. Shortcuts to innovation: the use of analogies in knowledge production. Working paper.

Tranchero, Matteo. 2024. Finding diamonds in the rough: data-driven opportunities and pharmaceutical innovation. Working paper.

Kao, Jennifer L. 2023. Mapping the cancer genome and R&D decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. SSRN Working Paper 3883041. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3883041

Toner-Rodgers, Aidan. 2024. Artificial intelligence, scientific discovery, and product innovation. Working paper.

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