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This week we have a twist on our Q&A styled commentaries, which we are calling “Good Call or Bad Call.” We focus on oil markets with four topics to go through. The point of the post is to shed light on signal from noise and when to push back on consensus narratives.
(1) About a month ago, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made headlines stating that oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East in general were much higher than everyone realized. His comments were broadly dismissed as happy talk from an administration that was desperate to see lower gasoline and diesel prices ahead of upcoming midterm elections. Was it a good call or bad call to doubt Secretary Wright’s comments on Middle East oil flows?
(2) Has it been a good call or bad call to believe in the oil glut narrative?
(3) Is it a good call or bad call to think recent changes to U.S. fuel economy rules announced by the Trump Administration will gut mpg improvements and boost gasoline demand?
(4) Has our Super Vol framework been a good call or a bad call?
📜 Credits
* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
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