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Did the AI Look-Through Trade Just Crack?
Broadcom beat consensus but dropped 13% on after-hours trading. CrowdStrike fell 10%. The Kospi crashed 7% intraday on Friday. The bar for AI stocks has moved beyond the trajectory — and the marginal buyer is starting to notice.
Jeremy walks through six interconnected stories shaping the next phase of markets:
— Why Broadcom's "miss" of less than 0.4% triggered a global tech selloff, even good numbers are no longer enough
— Hezbollah's rejection of the US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire and what the Hormuz dark-tanker dynamic means for sustained $100+ oil
— The Fed's openly hawkish pivot from Daly and Schmid ahead of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC on June 16-17
— The 1997-echo currency stress across Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, India and Japan — and why China is emerging as the regional safe haven
— SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO on June 12, S&P Dow Jones refusing to bend index rules, and what the inelastic markets hypothesis means for the AI-IPO supercycle
— Why private credit underwriting standards are tightening and what that signals about late-cycle leverage
Jeremy closes with four themes for the coming weeks: the AI guidance trajectory, the Fed pivot, the structural energy regime, and the IPO supply event. Position for volatility. Reduce concentration in mega-cap tech. Watch the dollar against the yen and the rupee. Don't fall for the diplomatic theatre.
Catalyst calendar: ECB rate decision (June 11) | SpaceX IPO debut (June 12) | FOMC + BoJ meetings (June 16-17) | Makerfield by-election (June 18) | US core PCE (June 25)
Mentioned in this episode: Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, Cliffwater, Partners Group, Blackstone | Mary Daly, Jeff Schmid, Isabel Schnabel, Kevin Warsh | The inelastic markets hypothesis (Gabaix & Koijen), Rob Arnott & Lillian Wu on passive distortion
Find Jeremy at: HyperNormalTimes on Substack
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.
