Why isn't oil at $200 with the Strait of Hormuz restricted? Rupert Mitchell — "The Blind Squirrel" — argues China has become a monopsony: the swing buyer of crude, putting an effective floor and ceiling on oil prices using storage tanks instead of quotas. He calls it the China Collar, and he thinks it will permanently re-rate energy equities.
We also cover why he's buying UK domestic mid-caps "on the bond floor", what replaces bonds now the 60/40 portfolio has stopped working, and the Monte Carlo runs where OpenAI and Anthropic are worth nothing.
A 25-year capital markets banker turned independent macro writer, Rupert publishes his own portfolio, losses included.
The Blind Squirrel Macro: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/
Hypernormal Times: https://jeremymckeown.substack.com/
In this episode:
An accidental banker: Barings, 1994 — five months before Leeson
Hong Kong ECM, and why the syndicate desk beat the prospectus
Inside a Chinese EV startup: "capitalism is a full-body contact sport in China"
BYD, Alibaba, Tencent — great company vs. great stock
Why a blind squirrel: strong convictions, loosely held
Leopold Aschenbrenner: the leverage lesson, not the fraud lesson
Is AI inflationary or deflationary? Both — and that's the problem
Valuing OpenAI and Anthropic when 20–45% of scenarios are zeros
The China Collar: monopsony, storage, and the swing buyer of crude
Why energy should be 2.5x its current S&P weight
The UK on its bond floor: FTSE 250, 12x earnings, battle-hardened managers
Investment trusts: getting paid twice when private equity bids
Life after 60/40: CTAs, long-dated crude, gold — and why not Bitcoin
EM local currency debt and 40% African exposure
The new Fed chair's straitjacket, and moving the 2% goalposts
Dollar/yen, the 30-year JGB, and the Forrest Gump of global macro
china collar, oil price, monopsony, crude oil, energy equities, opec, strait of hormuz, uk equities, ftse 250, investment trusts, closed-end funds, nav discount, 60/40 portfolio, portfolio diversification, cta, managed futures, trend following, gold, emerging market debt, macro investing, rupert mitchell, blind squirrel macro, openai valuation, anthropic valuation, ai bubble, federal reserve, dollar yen, jgb, byd, tencent, china state capitalism.
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.
