Macro Matters: Wellington’s Medeiros on the Fed and 2027 Risks

With nominal GDP running above 6% year to date and earnings season kicking off, Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management, explains why corporate profitability has been well-supported and why that support may be fading, in his return to the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, hosted by Ira Jersey, chief interest-rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. The wide-ranging discussion on the macro backdrop heading into 4Q and beyond covers the Fed’s hiking cycle under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance and why current policy rates may still not be sufficiently restrictive to bring core inflation sustainably back to 2%. Mike and Ira also dig into the Treasury-market selloff — now potentially in the “eighth inning” — tighter financial conditions and what below-trend growth in 2027 could mean for risk assets. The episode also tackles the upcoming midterm elections, implications for AI regulation and the data-center build-out, the fiscal drag from the One Big Beautiful Act and long-term debt sustainability concerns. Finally, Mike shares his medium-term asset allocation views, making the case for real assets over financial assets amid structurally higher rates.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.