Is nuclear deterrence still working in a multipolar world? Why is the gap between nuclear doctrine and real-world conflict growing? What do recent strikes on nuclear facilities mean for global non-proliferation norms? And what can we expect from the NPT regime ahead of the 2026 Review Conference?
In this episode of “Foreign Policy,” podcast Editor-in-Chief Sofia Babkina speaks with Dmitry Stefanovich (IMEMO RAS) about the changing logic of nuclear deterrence in a multipolar world.
The discussion explores the widening gap between nuclear doctrine and real-world conflict, the implications of recent strikes on nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, as well as the future prospects of the NPT regime and the upcoming 2026 RevCon.
Guest: Mr. Dmitry Stefanovich, Research Fellow, IMEMO RAS; Author, “STRATDELA”substack
Host: Ms. Sofia Babkina, Research Fellow, MGIMO Institute for International Studies
Time Stamps:
00:06 Intro
02:28 Is Nuclear Deterrence Still Working?
03:42 Multipolarity and Strategic (In)stability
04:36 Russia, the United States and China: Different Nuclear Logics
06:58 The Role of Allies in Nuclear Strategy
08:51 Strikes on Nuclear Facilities: A Dangerous Precedent
09:34 Will More Countries Seek Nuclear Weapons?
10:36 Hypersonic Weapons: Ambiguity, Compressed Decision Time and Miscalculation
12:57 Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons and Limited War
13:56 Nuclear Weapons, Conventional Power and Missile Defense
15:21 Space as a Domain of Strategic Competition
16:29 Commercial Satellites and Modern Warfare
17:02 The Future of the NPT Regime
18:06 NPT RevCon 2026: Can the Treaty Survive?
19:25 Q&A
19:33 (Mis)perception of Technology That Changed Escalation More Than Expected
20:15 Which Region Is Most Dangerous Today?
20:52 Underrated Stabilizing Mechanisms
21:23 Which Cold War Observations No Longer Apply?
22:13 Three Strategic Developments to Watch in 2026
This is the second English-language episode of the “Foreign Policy” podcast. You can listen to the first episode with IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi by following the link.
The Institute for International Studies (IIS) is a multi-disciplinary research branch of MGIMO University, established in 1976 as the Problem Research Laboratory for System Analysis of International Relations, and last renamed in 2009. We pride ourselves on our history of conducting innovative, in-depth, applied research in IR.
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