For the first time in a while, core CPI exceeded expectations. For the first time in a while, core services and core goods both accelerated on a year-over-year basis. But what is not at all new is that median inflation is settling in the high-3% range, roughly 3.65% y/y with today's report. Get used to it! And get used to the Federal Reserve easing anyway...

 

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/08/12/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2025/ )

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