C.H. Robinson is paying $5.8 billion in cash and stock for RXO, which Rick works out to more than 40 times RXO’s expected adjusted EBITDA for this year. The deal deck brings that down to about 13 times, but only by counting $300 million in cost savings that haven’t happened yet. Retail and e-commerce make up 37% of RXO’s revenue.
Also this week, ChatGPT adds virtual try-on to its shopping results, and Rick still can’t see how features like this pay back what OpenAI’s investors have put in. Apple’s iOS 27 shipped with a Safari block list that includes The Trade Desk, LiveRamp, ID5 and Permutive, though retail media networks with logged-in shoppers are left alone. Target’s holiday app can now scan a kid’s handwritten wish list and share it with relatives, which could become a Roundel opportunity. Shopify launched Canvas. It says a merchant can now build a custom store in twenty minutes. IDC’s Heather Hershey estimates Shopify took 21.8% of a $13.4 billion commerce software market in 2025, while Salesforce shrank.
In the Investor Minute, Uber buys ezCater for $2.3 billion in cash, and Rick covers a few smaller deals.
Rick is moderating the Shopware agentic commerce virtual summit on October 29. Register at watsonweekly.com/events.
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