Corn is over $5 and beans are near $13, and a lot of farmers still won't make any more money than they did at $4.50 corn. Every time the grain price goes up, something takes it back, and the front half of this Hot Topics episode is about what's doing the taking.
Diesel is $6.13 in Iowa. One Illinois farmer spent $1,000 filling a single semi. Anhydrous is close to $1,000 a ton, up 25% from a year ago. Refineries over there are putting out about 60% of the diesel they did before the Iran war, so more oil doesn't mean cheaper diesel. The White House is letting dyed diesel run on the road for the rest of the year with the federal tax deferred, about $640 million of relief by USDA's count. Deferred, not forgiven.
Then the bigger point. Farming spent decades specializing, and that bill is coming due. We don't think 10,000 acres is big enough to win on scale anymore, and at that size you're a CEO, not a farmer. For everybody else the answer is diversity: livestock back on the ground, manure in place of high priced nitrogen, shared equipment. And China cut tariffs on corn, wheat, meat and dairy but kept 10% on soybeans, so bean marketing is about politics now, with Brazil getting better every year.
Also in this one: 17,000 fewer cattle through the packing plants in one week, why immigration reform keeps dying with no middle left in politics, a Kentucky family turning down $26 million for 900 acres, 70 to 80 trucks showing up to pull a sick neighbor's beets, and a 2,598 pound pumpkin.
Maybe that's why we don't just grow corn and soybeans on every acre. Maybe we need to diversify.
What's taking the $5 back on your operation this fall? Drop it in the comments and we read them.
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THIS EPISODE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
● Conterra Ag ➱ https://www.conterraag.com
● AcreEdge Soil NXT ➱ https://www.acreedge.com
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Hot Topics before the pigs get chored
02:35 Why Tork came in fiery this morning
05:25 Tearing out Grandpa's 1970s hog barns
08:16 Market Update presented by Conterra Ag
10:30 $5 corn that pays no better than $4.50
11:28 The red diesel order and $640 million
14:46 Presented by AcreEdge Soil NXT
15:25 Diesel hauls everything you buy
18:43 We've hit the end of specialization
19:27 10,000 acres doesn't catch it anymore
21:43 Put livestock back on the land
23:02 No money behind you? Don't start in grain
23:34 The answer to high priced nitrogen
26:04 Red diesel vs green diesel, explained
29:31 Deferred, not forgiven. Who pays?
31:31 17,000 fewer cattle processed in a week
33:54 Why ag needs immigration reform
36:32 The death of the middle in politics
41:56 Packing plants were always the starter job
44:50 The post World War II order is ending
51:43 Why we want Peter Zeihan at the barn
52:55 China cut tariffs on everything but beans
54:05 Bean marketing is about politics now
57:27 Why Brazil worries every young farmer
1:00:20 100 year old locks and dams
1:02:44 Data centers are coming for farmland
1:04:40 $26 million for 900 acres, and they said no
1:08:59 Why Tork says they get built anyway
1:10:39 Great Grandpa would call me an idiot
1:15:56 Take the principles, not the assets
1:16:34 The good: College GameDay in Iowa City
1:17:52 70 to 80 trucks show up for Bill Cotton
1:18:41 The 2,598 pound pumpkin
1:23:09 Big plans for 2027
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