Weekend Update - W2642

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The Tape — W2642

Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-16. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.

Telltales Yield — Top 10

Telltales Yield — Bottom 10

This Week’s Reporters

Sector Medians

Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)

Weekly Price Movement

Top 5 (week-over-week price)

Bottom 5 (week-over-week price)

Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)

Finance-book — FCF not comparable

Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild.

Data Gaps

91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).

Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-16.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.

The Issue — This Week's Brief

The Cashflow Memo

Bank Prints, UnitedHealth’s Outlook, and Netflix’s Content Chief

Third-quarter results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UnitedHealth, and Netflix’s new content chief

The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 9 minutes.

Download the memo at telltales.us. Telltales is back Wednesday on episode E2643.

Chapter markers

* Time | Segment

* 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers

* 0:40 | Theme: bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley)

* 3:15 | Deep dive: UnitedHealth

* 6:00 | Rapid-fire: Netflix, Merck and Moderna, the earnings calendar

* 8:30 | Close

* 8:45 | Disclaimer

Full transcript

Intro

Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.

Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: third-quarter results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth’s third quarter and its raised outlook, Netflix’s new chief content officer and reported job cuts, the Merck and Moderna cancer vaccine data scheduled for a medical congress, and next week’s earnings calendar.

Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.

Theme — Bank earnings

Ava: Page 13 of the memo carries JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and all three reported their third quarters this week. JPMorgan and Goldman reported on Tuesday[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013][^pr-gs-q3-20261013], and Morgan Stanley reported on Wednesday[^pr-ms-q3-20261014].

Ava: JPMorgan first. Per its earnings presentation, attached to an eight-K, JPMorgan earned about $15 billion in the quarter, or $5.57 a share[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013]. Excluding $658 million of net investment securities losses, earnings were $5.75 a share[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013]. CNBC reports the LSEG analyst estimate was $5.90[^cnbc-banks-q3-20261013].

Ava: The presentation puts full-year net interest income at about $106.2 billion, up from about $105.5 billion in its July outlook[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013][^jpm-pres-q2-20260714]. It puts full-year adjusted expense, which excludes firmwide legal expense, at about $108.6 billion, up from about $107.5 billion[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013][^jpm-pres-q2-20260714].

Ava: Goldman Sachs. Per its earnings release, third-quarter net revenue was about $19 billion, 23% higher than a year earlier[^pr-gs-q3-20261013]. Earnings per share were $17.01, against $12.25 a year earlier[^pr-gs-q3-20261013].

Ava: In the release, chief executive David Solomon described the quarter as the firm’s second-highest for net revenue, with record year-to-date net revenue[^pr-gs-q3-20261013]. Annualized return on equity was about 19%[^pr-gs-q3-20261013].

Ava: Morgan Stanley. Per its earnings release, net revenue was about $20 billion, against about $18 billion a year earlier[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Earnings per share were $3.03, against $2.80[^pr-ms-q3-20261014].

Ava: The release says Wealth Management had record net revenue of about $9 billion and added about $230 billion of net new assets in the quarter[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Equity revenue in Institutional Securities was about $5.8 billion, against about $4.1 billion a year earlier[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Next, UnitedHealth.

Deep dive — UnitedHealth

Ava: UnitedHealth reported its third quarter on Tuesday and raised its full-year outlook, per the company’s release[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. Revenue was $112.7 billion, against $113.2 billion a year earlier[^pr-unh-q3-20261013].

Ava: Earnings per share were $4.56, against $2.59 a year earlier, and adjusted earnings per share were $4.69, per the release[^pr-unh-q3-20261013].

Ava: The release lists earnings from operations of $6.6 billion, and cash flows from operations of $5.1 billion, or 1.2 times net income[^pr-unh-q3-20261013].

Ava: On the outlook, UnitedHealth now expects full-year adjusted earnings of at least $20.50 a share, per the release[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. The company’s second-quarter release, in July, had put it at $19.50 to $20 a share[^pr-unh-q2-20260716].

Ava: The release puts UnitedHealth’s medical care ratio, medical costs as a share of premium revenue, at 88.4% in the quarter, against 89.9% a year earlier[^pr-unh-q3-20261013].

Ava: Chief financial officer Wayne DeVeydt told CNBC that medical costs in the quarter remain high compared with historical norms. On that, he said this.

Wayne DeVeydt (quoted): I think it’s something we should keep an eye on.[^cnbc-unh-q3-20261013]

Ava: DeVeydt also told CNBC that the independent dispute resolution process under the No Surprises Act is adding at least one percentage point to total medical costs[^cnbc-unh-q3-20261013]. He said acute hospital admissions among UnitedHealth members fell 15% from a year earlier through the third quarter[^cnbc-unh-q3-20261013]. In the company’s prepared remarks for the earnings call, Optum’s Patrick Conway cited a 10% increase in home health visits over last year[^unh-remarks-q3-20261013].

Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated October 12 has UnitedHealth’s enterprise value at 22 times free cash flow, on $20 billion of free cash flow, figures that predate this report[^memo-unh-20261012]. Last week’s show reported the Texas attorney general’s investigation of UnitedHealth, announced October 5[^ep-w2641].

Rapid-fire — Netflix, Merck and Moderna, the earnings calendar

Ava: Netflix. On Thursday, the company announced that Peter Rice, most recently chairman of Walt Disney Television, will join as chief content officer on October 26[^pr-nflx-rice-20261015]. Per the release, he replaces Bela Bajaria, who is leaving after nearly 10 years[^pr-nflx-rice-20261015].

Ava: On Wednesday, CNBC reported that Netflix will lay off about 6% of its workforce, roughly 1,000 employees, mostly in product, technology, legal and human resources, according to a memo from co-chief executives Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters that CNBC obtained[^cnbc-nflx-layoffs-20261014]. CNBC quoted the memo as saying this about the business.

Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, memo to employees (quoted): Our business is strong and growing, and we remain on track to deliver our full year forecast.[^cnbc-nflx-layoffs-20261014]

Ava: Netflix reports on Tuesday, October 20[^earn-nflx]. In its second-quarter shareholder letter, attached to an eight-K in July, Netflix forecast third-quarter revenue of about $12.9 billion and earnings per share of $0.82[^nflx-letter-q2-20260716].

Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated October 12 has Netflix’s enterprise value at 22 times free cash flow, on $13 billion of free cash flow[^memo-nflx-20261012].

Ava: Merck and Moderna, both on page 15 of the memo. In August, the two companies released positive initial data from a late-stage trial of their personalized cancer vaccine, given with Keytruda in melanoma patients, CNBC reports[^cnbc-mrk-davis-20261014]. Per Merck’s release, the first presentation of that Phase 3 data, from the INTerpath-001 trial, is scheduled for a Presidential Symposium at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress in Madrid[^pr-mrk-esmo-20261013].

Ava: The congress runs October 23 to 27, and Merck holds an oncology investor event there on Monday, October 26[^pr-mrk-esmo-20261013].

Ava: On Wednesday, Merck chief executive Rob Davis told CNBC he expects the vaccine to get faster to manufacture. CNBC reports the current timeline, from sequencing a patient’s tumor to delivering the vaccine to the hospital, is six weeks[^cnbc-mrk-davis-20261014]. Davis said this.

Rob Davis (quoted): But I do think over time you’re going to see that timeline shortened.[^cnbc-mrk-davis-20261014]

Ava: The same day, Merck opened its ADVANCE research facility on its West Point, Pennsylvania campus, part of what the release calls a $550 million regional investment[^pr-mrk-advance-20261014]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 12 has Merck’s enterprise value at 23 times free cash flow, and shows Moderna’s free cash flow at negative $2.8 billion, with no multiple[^memo-mrk-mrna-20261012].

Ava: Next week’s earnings calendar. Netflix reports Tuesday. On Wednesday, October 21: Tesla[^earn-tsla], Meta[^earn-meta], AT&T[^earn-t], NextEra Energy[^earn-nee], Kinder Morgan[^earn-kmi] and Moody’s[^earn-mco]. On Thursday, October 22: Comcast[^earn-cmcsa], Spotify[^earn-spot] and Bloom Energy[^earn-be]. Verizon reports the following Monday, October 26[^earn-vz].

Close

Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Telltales is back Wednesday on episode 2643. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note through the Substack.

Disclaimer

Ava: This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Sources

* CNBC. (2026, October 13). Bank earnings takeaways: Here’s how JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells Fargo and Citi performed in Q3. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/bank-earnings-live-updates.html

* CNBC. (2026, October 13). UnitedHealth Group tops estimates, hikes profit outlook as insurer manages high medical costs. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/unitedhealth-group-unh-earnings-q3-2026.html

* CNBC. (2026, October 14). Merck CEO tells CNBC he expects breakthrough cancer vaccine will become faster to make. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/merck-moderna-cancer-vaccine-manufacturing-time.html

* CNBC. (2026, October 14). Netflix to lay off roughly 1,000 employees, or 6% of workforce. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/netflix-layoffs.html

* CNBC. (2026, October 15). Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria is leaving, will be replaced by Peter Rice. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/netflix-bela-bajaria-peter-rice.html

* The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (2026, October 13). Goldman Sachs reports 2026 third quarter earnings per common share of $17.01 and annualized return on common equity of 18.7% [Full press release, PDF]. https://www.goldmansachs.com/pressroom/press-releases/current/pdfs/2026-q3-results.pdf

* The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (2026, October 13). Goldman Sachs reports 2026 third quarter earnings per common share of $17.01 and annualized return on common equity of 18.7% [Press release]. https://www.goldmansachs.com/pressroom/press-releases/2026/2026-10-13-q3-results

* JPMorgan Chase & Co. (2026, July 14). Earnings presentation slides, financial results 2Q26 [Form 8-K exhibit]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026048086/a2q26_earningsxpresentat.htm

* JPMorgan Chase & Co. (2026, October 13). Earnings presentation slides, financial results 3Q26 [Form 8-K exhibit]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026065616/a3q26_earningsxpresentat.htm

* Merck & Co., Inc. (2026, October 13). Merck showcases first-time pivotal Phase 3 results from oncology pipeline and continued innovative potential of existing portfolio at ESMO 2026 [Press release]. https://www.merck.com/news/merck-showcases-first-time-pivotal-phase-3-results-from-oncology-pipeline-and-continued-innovative-potential-of-existing-portfolio-at-esmo-2026/

* Merck & Co., Inc. (2026, October 14). Merck inaugurates state-of-the-art ADVANCE bioanalytical facility on West Point, Pennsylvania, campus [Press release]. https://www.merck.com/news/merck-inaugurates-state-of-the-art-advance-bioanalytical-facility-on-west-point-pennsylvania-campus/

* Morgan Stanley. (2026, October 14). Morgan Stanley third quarter 2026 earnings results [Press release]. https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us-ir/shareholder/3q2026.pdf

* Netflix, Inc. (2026, July 16). Second-quarter 2026 letter to shareholders [Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000211/ex991_q226.htm

* Netflix, Inc. (2026, September 14). Netflix to announce third quarter 2026 financial results [Press release]. https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_news/Netflix-to-Announce-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-2026.pdf

* Netflix, Inc. (2026, October 15). Peter Rice named Netflix chief content officer [Press release]. https://about.netflix.com/en/news/peter-rice-named-netflix-chief-content-officer

* Office of the Texas Attorney General. (2026, October 5). Attorney General Ken Paxton investigates UnitedHealth Group for denying patients the coverage they need and engaging in deceptive practices [Press release]. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-investigates-unitedhealth-group-denying-patients-coverage-they-need-and

* UnitedHealth Group. (2026, July 16). UnitedHealth Group reports second quarter 2026 results [Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000191/earningsrelease2q26_7152.htm

* UnitedHealth Group. (2026, October 13). Third quarter 2026 results teleconference prepared remarks. https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/content/dam/UHG/PDF/investors/2026/unh-q3-2026-remarks.pdf

* UnitedHealth Group. (2026, October 13). UnitedHealth Group reports third quarter 2026 results [Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000255/earningsrelease3q26unh.htm

* UnitedHealth Group. (2026, October 13). UnitedHealth Group reports third quarter 2026 results [Press release]. https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/newsroom/2026/2026-10-13-uhg-reports-third-quarter-2026-results.html

Internal data

Internal data is provided on a best efforts basis.

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