Weekend Update - W2640

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The Tape — W2640

Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-09-25 → 2026-10-02. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.

Telltales Yield — Top 10

Telltales Yield — Bottom 10

This Week’s Reporters

No universe names reporting in the coming 7 days.

Sector Medians

Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)

Weekly Price Movement

Top 5 (week-over-week price)

Bottom 5 (week-over-week price)

Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)

Finance-book — FCF not comparable

Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild.

Data Gaps

91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).

Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-02.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.

The Issue — This Week's Brief

Reports on Broadcom’s financing.

The Cashflow Memo

Micron’s Fourth Quarter and Broadcom’s Financing Commitments

Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter, the financing commitments in Broadcom’s 10-Q, and NextEra’s Texas power project

The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 9 minutes.

Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2641.

Chapter markers

* Time | Segment

* 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers

* 0:40 | Theme: AI infrastructure financing (Broadcom, NextEra)

* 3:20 | Deep dive: Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter

* 5:50 | Rapid-fire: Regeneron, UnitedHealth, Interactive Brokers, the earnings calendar

* 8:00 | Close

* 8:20 | Disclaimer

Full transcript

Intro

Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.

Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: reports on Broadcom’s financing for Anthropic, NextEra’s Texas power project, Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter, and the Sanofi and Regeneron expansion.

Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.

Theme: AI infrastructure financing

Ava: Reuters reported on Thursday, citing Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing, that Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion in convertible notes[^reuters-avgo-anthropic-20261001]. Per Reuters, that is about a third of a $125 billion, five-year commitment by Anthropic to lease TPU computing capacity[^reuters-avgo-anthropic-20261001].

Ava: Broadcom’s 10-Q, filed September 10, describes a backstop and convertible notes, each tied to customer lease agreements[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. It does not name a customer. The backstop was given to a financial partner, on a customer’s five-year lease obligations. If the customer defaults on a lease, Broadcom owes the difference between 85% of the outstanding lease amounts and the value received from selling the AI racks[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. The 10-Q states the limit this way.

Broadcom 10-Q (quoted): Our maximum potential liability under the Backstop upon the deployment of all AI racks, on an undiscounted basis, was approximately $29 billion.[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]

Ava: The 10-Q says no amounts have been paid under the backstop[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. The 10-Q also describes convertible notes. Under certain circumstances, and if needed, a customer may issue Broadcom up to $42 billion of them, to be used solely for the customer’s obligations under the lease agreements. As of August 2, none had been issued[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910].

Ava: On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Blackstone and a group of banks are assembling $60 billion of financing for AI chips[^bbg-avgo-syndicate-20261002]. Bloomberg reported that it includes a $42 billion senior secured tranche, that Broadcom will provide residual value support on that tranche, and that the deal has not been announced[^bbg-avgo-syndicate-20261002].

Ava: Reuters also reported this week, from the same Anthropic filing, that Anthropic expects to spend at least $518 billion on infrastructure over the next decade, across six partners, with about 80% of it non-cancelable or payable whether or not the capacity is used[^reuters-anthropic-518-20260929].

Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated September 28 has Broadcom at 51 times free cash flow, on $34 billion of free cash flow[^memo-avgo-20260928].

Ava: Next, NextEra. On Wednesday, NextEra Energy, Lewis Energy Group and Related Digital said the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Republic of Korea selected Related Companies and NextEra Energy Resources, in partnership with Lewis Energy Group, to develop Project Star in Encinal, Texas[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Per the companies’ release, it is a $22 billion natural gas power campus with about 6.5 gigawatts of generation, built to support a 5-gigawatt data center campus on an adjacent site[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930].

Ava: The release says the campus will be owned jointly by the Republic of Korea and the United States, and built and operated by the Related and NextEra Energy Resources joint venture[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Initial generation is expected as early as 2029, subject to permitting and approvals[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930].

Deep dive: Micron

Ava: Micron reported its fiscal fourth quarter on Wednesday. Per the 8-K, revenue was $54 billion, against $41 billion in the prior quarter and $11 billion a year earlier[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Net income was about $38 billion[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930].

Ava: For the fiscal year, revenue was $133 billion, against $37 billion the year before[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Adjusted free cash flow for the year was $62 billion, after $27 billion of capital expenditures, net of government incentives[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930].

Ava: Micron’s guidance for the current quarter is revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, at a gross margin of about 86%[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930].

Ava: In its prepared remarks for the earnings call, Micron said fiscal fourth-quarter DRAM revenue was about $40 billion, 73% of total revenue[^mu-remarks-20260930].

Ava: Micron said it has signed 26 strategic customer agreements, which it estimates at more than 35% of its revenue through 2030[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Three-quarters of that estimated revenue has a defined pricing framework, and the remaining quarter is priced periodically, based on market prices[^mu-remarks-20260930].

Ava: Micron put its remaining performance obligations at about $150 billion[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Customer cash deposits received in the quarter were about $12 billion[^mu-remarks-20260930].

Ava: For calendar 2027 and 2028, Micron expects industry DRAM bit shipments to grow in the low-20s percent range and NAND in the mid-20s, and expects the industry to remain supply constrained in both years[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra, in the prepared remarks, on DRAM supply.

Sanjay Mehrotra (quoted): Even with additional industry DRAM cleanroom space plans, with robust demand trends including new upside requests from customers, we do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.[^mu-remarks-20260930]

Ava: Micron said it plans to increase capital expenditures in fiscal 2027 versus its prior plans[^mu-remarks-20260930].

Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated September 28 has Micron at 28 times free cash flow, on $43 billion of free cash flow, figures that predate this report[^memo-mu-20260928].

Rapid-fire

Ava: Page 19 of the memo. Sanofi and Regeneron announced on Thursday an expansion of their antibody collaboration[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Per the release, Regeneron receives $1 billion upfront, with up to $7 billion more in milestone payments[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001].

Ava: The companies will co-develop and co-commercialize four new long-acting antibodies, and share costs and any profits equally[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Regeneron also has an option to include Sanofi’s lunsekimig, exercisable when its phase 3 studies in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are complete[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001].

Ava: Also on page 19, UnitedHealth. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that UnitedHealth is dropping 2027 Medicare Advantage plans covering about 390,000 members[^bbg-unh-maplans-20261001]. UnitedHealth reports earnings on Tuesday, October 13[^earn-unh].

Ava: Interactive Brokers released its September metrics on Thursday. Per the release, client accounts were 5.6 million, 35% higher than a year earlier, and daily average revenue trades were 4.1 million, 6% higher[^pr-ibkr-metrics-20261001]. Interactive Brokers reports earnings on Thursday, October 15[^earn-ibkr].

Ava: On page 13 of the memo, the banks. The SEC on Friday censured two JPMorgan units in a settled order[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. The order finds that they permitted a person subject to a statutory disqualification to be involved in security-based swap transactions, and failed to supervise that person[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. The sanctions are a censure and a cease-and-desist order[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. CNBC, citing The Wall Street Journal, reported that Goldman Sachs’s board has discussed president John Waldron succeeding David Solomon as chief executive as early as next year[^cnbc-gs-succession-20260929]. CNBC also reported that a Goldman spokesman said there is no definitive timeline for succession[^cnbc-gs-succession-20260929].

Ava: The earnings calendar. Goldman Sachs[^earn-gs] and JPMorgan[^earn-jpm] report on Tuesday, October 13. Morgan Stanley[^earn-ms], ASML[^earn-asml] and Fastenal[^earn-fast] report on Wednesday, October 14. Taiwan Semiconductor reports on Thursday, October 15[^earn-tsm].

Close

Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2641. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note through the Substack.

Disclaimer

Ava: This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.

Sources

* Bloomberg. (2026, October 1). UnitedHealth, Humana Drop Medicare Advantage Plans to Boost Profit. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/health-insurers-ditch-medicare-advantage-plans-to-boost-profit

* Bloomberg. (2026, October 2). Broadcom Amassing $60 Billion to Fund Chips for Anthropic. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/broadcom-starts-amassing-60-billion-to-fund-chips-for-anthropic

* Broadcom Inc. (2026, September 10). Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended August 2, 2026 [10-Q]. SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016826000080/avgo-20260802.htm

* CNBC. (2026, September 29). Goldman Sachs CEO succession planning faces one big problem. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/goldman-sachs-ceo-succession-planning.html

* Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (2026, October 1). Interactive Brokers Group reports brokerage metrics and other financial information for September 2026, includes Reg.-NMS execution statistics [Press release]. Business Wire. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/interactive-brokers-group-reports-brokerage-161500811.html

* Micron Technology, Inc. (2026, September 30). Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call prepared remarks. Micron Investor Relations. https://investors.micron.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/Q4-FY26-Prepared-Remarks.pdf

* Micron Technology, Inc. (2026, September 30). Micron Technology, Inc. reports record fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results [8-K, Exhibit 99.1]. SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312526000018/a2026q4ex991-pressrelease.htm

* NextEra Energy, Inc., Lewis Energy Group, & Related Digital. (2026, September 30). The United States Department of Commerce and the Government of the Republic of Korea announce strategic investment in Project Star, a $22.3 billion energy infrastructure campus in Encinal, Texas [Press release]. https://www.investor.nexteraenergy.com/news-and-events/news-releases/2026/09-30-2026-231920318

* Reuters. (2026, October 1). Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, filing says. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/broadcom-lending-anthropic-42-billion-chips-reuters.html

* Reuters. (2026, September 29). Anthropic’s $518 billion AI buildout hinges largely on deals that cannot be canceled, filing shows. KSL. https://www.ksl.com/article/51629885/anthropics-518-billion-ai-buildout-hinges-largely-on-deals-that-cannot-be-canceled-filing-shows

* Sanofi & Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (2026, October 1). Sanofi and Regeneron expand global Alliance with multiple next-generation, long-acting immunology antibodies [Press release]. https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room/press-releases/2026/2026-10-01-05-00-00-3372517

* U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. (2026, October 2). In the Matter of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (Exchange Act Release No. 106569). https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/admin/2026/34-106569.pdf

Internal data

Internal data is provided on a best efforts basis.

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