Oil holds steady despite Hormuz drone strikes, SK Hynix tests a $25B US listing, and the team runs its mid-year predictions scorecard across energy, tech, and healthcare — including Vertex’s $10B endocrine bet and Palantir’s Karp taking on Anthropic and OpenAI.
The Cashflow Memo
The Prediction Scorecard
https://telltales.topmarkcapital.com/predictions/
Key Takeaways
* Despite Hormuz drone strikes on three ships, Hunt sees no material oil supply disruption — crude drifts to the high-$70s (vs. high-$60s) while natural gas holds flat near $3.50 through 2027, and Medicare/Medicaid (~$2T of $7T federal spending) remains the only credible deficit lever.
* SK Hynix is raising $25B in the US equity market ahead of a July 10 listing, reviving Hunt’s overbuild concerns for memory (Samsung/Hynix/Micron); IBM’s 7-angstrom (0.7nm) research chip claims a density lead over TSMC’s current 2nm node (1.6nm planned for next year).
* The Nvidia-Palantir open-source JV (government first, banks next) reflects Jason’s models are commodity thesis; Alex Karp’s CNBC appearance pressed Anthropic and OpenAI on enterprise data trust, positioning Palantir’s context-graph as the model-agnostic integration layer.
* Predictions scorecard: 2026 pharma M&A tracks to a record pace (~$150B in H1, ahead of 2019, driven by deal volume not mega-deals — largest single transaction only $13B); Tesla Robotaxi needs a serious hockey stick to catch Waymo given still-thin Austin/Miami fleets; xAI’s Grok 4.5 (claimed near-Opus-4.7 quality, cheaper/faster, but only 500K context) keeps the xAI leads call alive.
* Vertex is paying ~$10B for Kynetix (San Diego endocrine-disorder pipeline, one drug already FDA-approved) on a bet that microplastic-driven endocrine disease is a growing secular market; CMS now projects US healthcare spend hits $9T (21% of GDP) by 2034.
Show Notes
[00:00:00] Intro & Welcome Mike opens the show; download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.
[00:00:26] Exhibit C: Oil, Gas & Hormuz Risk Hunt argues the Hormuz drone strikes won’t meaningfully dent oil supply; he sees prices drifting into the high-$70s while natural gas holds flat near $3.50 through 2027.
[00:04:23] Exhibit A: The Deficit, Defense Spending & Medicare Defense spending rises in FY27, interest costs hold near 3.5%, and Hunt makes the case for a bipartisan Medicare-for-All push to rationalize the ~$2 trillion Medicare/Medicaid budget.
[00:06:18] Tech News: SK Hynix’s $25B Listing & IBM’s 7-Angstrom Chip SK Hynix raises $25B in the US ahead of a July 10 listing, raising overbuild concerns in memory; IBM claims a density lead over TSMC with a 7-angstrom (0.7nm) research chip.
[00:09:23] Palantir, Karp’s CNBC Meltdown & the AI Trust War Alex Karp challenges Anthropic and OpenAI on enterprise data trust; Mike breaks down Palantir’s context-graph pitch as the model-agnostic integration layer for the enterprise, alongside its custom-model partnership with Nvidia.
[00:13:17] Predictions Review: Energy & Nuclear US gas supply prediction hits 108 bcf/d; TerraPower’s Wyoming construction permit keeps the Gen IV nuclear call on track, while $4.50-5 natural gas and China oil demand growth both stall out.
[00:16:21] Predictions Review: Tech, Robotaxis & Quantum Risk to Bitcoin Tesla Robotaxi needs a serious hockey stick to catch Waymo’s ride volume; new Google research shrinks the qubit count needed to crack Bitcoin encryption, pulling forward the threat timeline.
[00:21:43] Predictions Review: Healthcare, Pharma M&A & GLP-1s 2026 pharma M&A tracks to a record ~$150B first half; Vertex pays ~$10B for endocrine-disorder specialist Kynetix, and a new Medicare GLP-1 bridge program offers $50/month prescriptions through year-end.
[00:30:06] Wrap-Up Hunt and the team close out the predictions review largely unscathed.
Get the full Cash Flow Memo with updated financials on ~80 companies at telltales.us — new episodes every week. Track how our calls are actually playing out at our predictions scorecard.
Cashtags
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