Why are people having fewer children than they say they want? In this episode, writer and policy thinker Phoebe Arslanagić-Little joins me to discuss the UK fertility crisis and what she calls the “birth gap”: the gap between the number of children people say they want and the number they actually have. We talk about why this is not just about money, but a mix of culture, career timing, housing, childcare, social norms, and the feeling that you need to reach some elusive state of readiness before having children.
We also get into maternity pay, paternity leave, grandparents, childcare, state signals, dating apps, and what surprised Phoebe most about becoming a mother.
As she puts it, “I don’t really subscribe to any of the theories that say, oh, it’s this one thing. I think it genuinely is like a confluence of factors.” And on the role of government: “I think the state should very openly say there are people who want to have children. We think that’s great. We’d like to help them.”
Transcript: https://www.thendobetter.com/investing/2026/3/22/phoebe-arslanagi-little-on-fertility-family-policy-and-the-birth-gap
Contents:
00:00 Fertility Crisis Defined
01:25 Overpopulation Narrative Origins
03:22 Is the Birth Gap Real
04:59 Why People Delay Kids
06:41 Culture and Readiness Standards
09:51 Policy Levers to Boost Births
13:06 Making Birth Less Traumatic
15:13 Paternity Leave and Social Engineering
22:05 State Neutrality and Universal Benefits
27:36 Grandparents and Informal Childcare
31:24 Single Parents and China Lessons
34:52 Best Family Policy Levers
36:33 Childcare Costs and Incentives
38:31 Childcare Ratios Debate
40:21 Safety Versus Deregulation
41:33 Underrated Overrated Round
42:20 Food Fears and Animal Welfare
45:12 Astrology and Lab Meat
47:41 Pubs Alcohol and E Bikes
52:18 Dating Apps and Social Mixing
58:49 Writing Process and Motherhood
01:01:49 Projects Advice and Wrap Up
