Mister Treasury Meets Mister Market (E273)

After surveying a softening S&P 500 on weaker tech (0:26) for the week ended Aug. 21, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough scrutinize bond pricing (1:53) that appeared less than impressed with Treasury Secretary Scott Besssent’s interventionism. Treasury’s limited buying at the long end, Eric Dhall remarks, stirred up volatility at that long end of the curve; nonetheless, term premia on government debt ended the week higher from shorter to longer tenors. That market verdict, coinciding with the national debt topping $40 trillion, he notes, left some investors spooked. Commodities (4:57) rose, led by energy, while gold and bitcoin rallied and the dollar weakened, moves which Eric attributes to the federal debt news and the worrisome Treasury intervention.

Scrutinizing the week’s macro tea leaves (7:36), Mark Kimbrough sifts out an unusually strong “select-tech” contribution to industrial production, a positive but still-to-be-confirmed gain in services and manufacturing hiring, and signs in the FOMC minutes that members are continuing to “sit on their hands” with respect to the federal funds target rate. For Aug. 24-28, Eric and Mark will be especially on the lookout for PCE and personal income prints on Wednesday and whether Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh serves up something concrete or “gibberish” at his Jackson Hole speech scheduled 10 am ET Friday.