In this week’s Thought Sparks Podcast episode, Rita McGrath, a Columbia University Business School Professor, C-Suite strategist, business founder and best-selling author, sits down with Roger Dennis, advisor on long term thinking and foresight and cultural transformation specialist.
00:00 Introduction
00:22 Welcome Roger Dennis
01:03 How Roger became a futurist
03:05 "Getting above strategy" explained
05:18 Current geopolitical risks & top trends to watch
07:13 Three things leaders need: capabilities, process, routines
09:44 Historical precedents for today's volatility
11:31 Example: tolls on the Strait of Hormuz/Malacca
12:35 Reversion to the mean, or a new normal?
14:19 The "Layer Player" framework
18:28 Second-order consequences & policy paradoxes
23:26 Acting under uncertainty: the Netflix story
26:15 Why you need real experts, not guesswork
28:03 The 2015 pandemic report nobody wanted
29:53 New Zealand's COVID Tracer App success story
33:08 The mindset of realistic optimism
41:58 How the music industry refused to adapt 43:38 Industries still "hanging on" today
45:02 Agentic AI and the ROI problem
46:57 From mass production to personalization
50:11 Where to learn more: The Paradox of Preparedness
55:02 Key takeaway for leaders
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