Episode 1477: Think Tank: Sale of stockpiles explains China’s massive wartime export boost

From March to May, China has exported record amounts of chemicals despite falling production as companies work through huge inventories built up over the past few years.

• China chemicals production has fallen, but exports are soaring
• Inventory levels in China are much higher than people suspected
• Higher prices mean that this is now being exported
• China operators still run despite poor economics, domestic demand
• They have been stockpiling, now selling this inventory
• May data confirm the trend is continuing
• 20% of global olefins supply has been disrupted by the Middle East war
• 45% of Asia ethylene supply outside of China was offline in April
• Record capacity additions mean oversupply will continue for 5-10 years
• From 2030 China will add less new capacity

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior polyolefins analyst James Wilson and ICIS senior consultant John Richardson.