In this episode, we explore what it really means to make a "good" prediction. Starting with something as ordinary as a weather forecast, we discuss why forecasting poses deep economic and game theoretic questions. Together with our guest Rakesh Vohra, we unpack the concept of calibration, examine how forecasts can be evaluated, and revisit the surprising insight that even someone without meteorological expertise can produce calibrated weather predictions.

 

Rakesh Vohra is the George A. Weiss and Lydia Bravo Weiss University Professor of Economics at University of Pennsylvania. You can find his paper co-authored with Dean Foster on calibration here.

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