To G, or not to G. That is the question every telco faces, and the 6G noise is getting louder. So how does that decision actually get made?
Stefan Pongratz, vice president of RAN and telecom CapEx research at Dell’Oro Group, has watched operators wrestle with it through 16 years and three G cycles. He knows what it really costs, what’s on the boardroom chart, and why waiting has a price of its own. He also knows what makes this cycle different, and why the operators dimensioning their networks for humans might be planning for the wrong customer.
Listen now to hear:
- Why launching a new G is expensive—and not launching is, too [04:40];
- What’s on the boardroom chart when operators greenlight a new G [07:31];
- Why being second is safe—until it suddenly isn’t [10:47]; and
- What happens when the network’s biggest users don’t sleep [13:11].
Links and Resources:
- Learn more about the report that’s behind the numbers Stefan shares—Global Telecom Capex to Normalize, Not Disappear, According to Dell’Oro Group. CapEx is past its peak but not falling off a cliff, with capital intensity easing toward 15% by 2029.
- Explore TM Forum’s Autonomous Networks framework, the “road toward Level 4.” Stefan name-checks it when he describes operators’ long quest to do more with less.
- Curious which of your sites actually earn their next-G upgrade? See how the Totogi Ontology builds a live P&L for every cell site and ranks them by the profit each one brings, so you can decide where to invest by revenue instead of raw traffic.
- Book your spot at TelecomTV’s AI-Native Telco Forum, September 8 and 9 in Düsseldorf, where I’m giving a talk and throwing another legendary Totogi party. Want an invite? Stop by our demo pod, or DM me on LinkedIn or X at @TelcoDR for more information.
- Catch me with VIVA Bolivia CEO Ryan Alvarez at TM Forum’s Innovate Americas in Dallas on October 6, where we’ll have a fireside chat about the exact question Stefan keeps circling: which sites should you NOT upgrade? Alvarez brings the real next-G decision that VIVA is weighing right now.
- Watch two pickleball obsessives in their natural habitat. Stefan took gold in the men’s open at the NVZ NorCal Summer Cup and I scored with the Austin Ballers, taking top prize at the MiLP DUPR16 50+ Nationals. I hope to bump into Stefan on the pickleball court someday soon!
- Check out this episode on our YouTube channel.
- You can find the episode transcript here.
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This week’s guest:
Stefan Pongratz joined Dell’Oro Group in 2010 and leads the firm’s Mobile RAN market research programs. At the firm, Mr. Pongratz has expanded RAN research and authored multiple Advanced Research Reports to ensure the program evolves to address new RAN technologies and opportunities, including 5G, 6G, AI RAN, Open RAN, private wireless, Massive MIMO, mmWave, small cells, and CBRS. Before joining Dell’Oro Group, Mr. Pongratz spent 10 years at Anritsu Company.
Podcast Credits:
- Executive Producer and Host: Danielle Rios, TelcoDR
- Senior Producer: Lindsay Grubb, TillCo Media
- Senior Editor/Brand Manager: Alisa Jenkins, Springboard Marketing
- Audio Editor: Andrew Condell
- Supervising Producer: Amanda Avery
- Associate Producer: Kriselda Dionisio
- Music: Dyami Wilson
