What Just Happened to the NYC Real Estate Market? Manhattan Real Estate in Q2 2026

The NYC real estate market shifted in Q2 — but maybe not in the way you'd expect.

Closed sales declined 6.3% year-over-year, ending five consecutive quarters of growth. At the same time, inventory tightened, negotiability dropped to 3.3%, luxury inventory reached a 22-year low, and a record 57.9% of deals occurred above $1 million.

John and Jonathan break down what happened with mortgage rates, closed sales, inventory, months of supply, pricing and the luxury market — plus the new pied-à-terre tax creating another layer of uncertainty for NYC buyers and sellers.

So, is NYC real estate actually slowing down? Or are buyers simply competing for fewer properties?

Here's what the Q2 2026 numbers really tell us.