Rates, Risks & Resilience: Australia's Economic Reality Check

Andrew and Matt are joined by Sian Fenner, Senior Economist at Westpac, for a wide-ranging discussion on the Australian economic outlook.

Topics covered:

• CPI & Inflation: April's CPI came in at 4.2%, below expectations, but underlying pressures are building across building costs, freight, and hospitality
• Strait of Hormuz: How ongoing shipping disruptions are flowing through to energy and fertilizer prices, and why full normalization isn't expected until mid-next year
• Fuel & Trade: Australia's fuel import positioning, government contingency funding, and the fragmented global trade environment
• US-China-Australia Trade Tensions: Agricultural deals, tariff exposure, and what the Trump administration's agreements mean for Australian commodity exporters
• RBA Rate Outlook: Westpac's forecast for two further hikes in August and September, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.1% by year-end
• Commodity Markets: Outlook for wheat, canola, and beef, including El Niño risks
• Federal Budget: A detailed breakdown of the Labor government's tax reforms, including the permanent $20K instant asset write-off, carry-back loss provisions, and changes to capital gains tax and discretionary trusts