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‘Earnings bubble’ meets geopolitical risk | Market Movements

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SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 15 JULY 2026
Laura Marwick & Jordan Cunningham, Sharesies Head of Data & Analytics

Note: Filmed Tuesday 14 July

↑ WHAT’S UP — Meta surged 14.8% on plans to add 14 gigawatts of compute, driving the Nasdaq up 1.74% for its fourth gain in five weeks. SK Hynix's US debut raised US$26.5 billion, the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company.

↓ WHAT’S DOWN — The ASX 200 fell 0.4% to 8,806 as miners tumbled over 4%, while the Dow was  down 0.5% and Russell 2000 0.6%.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The RBNZ lifted the OCR 25bps to 2.5% — its first hike in three years — and signalled that more tightening is likely. Renewed US-Iran strikes pushed WTI crude up 4.3% and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.57%.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH — US CPI lands Tuesday (est. 3.9% y/y), alongside new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony and big US bank earnings.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Analysts have unusually lifted S&P 500 earnings estimates into Q2 reporting season, stirring "earnings bubble" talk, while the US-Iran ceasefire looks fragile after fresh strikes. NZ's rate hike and improving PMI point to a Q3 recovery.

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