Is Trump Becoming the GOP's Biggest Liability? | Kyle Kondik

Democrats are favored to take back the House in the 2026 midterm elections, but does that mean the country is becoming more Democratic? And could Republicans still hold on to the Senate?

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, joins Faithful Politics to break down the congressional election map and explain why 2026 could be an especially difficult year for Republicans.

We discuss Trump's declining approval ratings, the economic consequences of the Iran war, rising gas prices, and whether Republican efforts to redraw congressional districts will deliver the advantages they expected.

Kondik also explains why Democrats face a much harder path to winning the Senate, which states could determine control of Congress, and why even a decisive Democratic victory may say little about the 2028 presidential election.

We also examine the reliability of political polling, what early voting can and cannot tell us, and what voters should watch for on election night.

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Kyle Kondik is Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, the nonpartisan political analysis newsletter published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He also serves as the center's Director of Communications. Kondik specializes in American elections, congressional races, electoral history, and political forecasting. He is the author of The Long Red Thread, examining the Republican Party's electoral advantages in U.S. House elections, and The Bellwether, which explores Ohio's historical role in presidential elections. His analysis helps explain the electoral trends and competitive races shaping control of Congress.