On paper, capital is pouring into the energy transition. But where is it actually going? In this episode, Sanjeev Krishnan sits down with S2G Managing Director Francis O'Sullivan to unpack his new paper, "The Illusion of Crowds," a five-year, data-driven look at how $88 billion across 6,400+ deals has really been deployed, and why the market is far more concentrated than the headline numbers suggest. They get into why so-called "growth" rounds are often just large venture checks, how big funds co-investing with each other creates hidden risk for LPs who think they're diversified, and why the sector is absorbing three to four times more capital than it's returning. Along the way, they trade hot takes on what zero rates did to power markets, whether the AI-driven energy trade is the next halo waiting to crack, and the lessons Frank took from the shale boom. If you allocate capital, raise it, or build companies in this space, this one's worth a close listen.
Chapters
3:20 - Revisiting the Missing Middle: Three Years Later
8:10 - How Zero Rates Distorted Energy Markets
15:50 - Can You Raise Capital If You're Not Levered to AI?
17:30 - Introducing the Illusion of Crowds Paper
26:20 - The Wisdom of Crowds Framework
30:30 - The Capital Crowding Problem: Picking Winners Too Early
34:00 - Value Creation vs. Value Realization
37:00 - From Shale to Clean Energy: Lessons From Frank's Research Arc
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