China prepared in advance for a US attack on Iran. But many of its Asian neighbours have been hit hard because their economies were heavily reliant on energy imports from the Gulf.
In the short-term, the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered rationing, and shortages of diesel, gas and fertiliser. Does that set a negative precedent for other choke points across the world?
In the longer-term the war may force Asian nations into deeper reckonings: to reassess supply chains, economic strategies and whether the US can be trusted as a stable ally.
Why hasn't China supported Iran more? Will the standoff over Hormuz tempt Beijing to flex its muscles over the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea? How will Pakistan leverage its status as negotiator? Will the countries of southeast Asia follow through on calls for more regional integration of energy supplies?
To discuss these issues, and more, Ben Bland, Director of the Asia-Pacific Programme, hosts this week's Independent Thinking podcast, standing in for Bronwen Maddox. He is joined by two of his Chatham House colleagues: Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow for China; and Chietigj Bajpaee, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia.
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