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🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began.
⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel prices before the midterms. Farm groups warn it could crush corn and soybean oil demand, though a 2027 biofuel quota bump may help offset it.
☔ Weather markets: Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company to grow its weather prediction contracts, with volume up 500% YoY toward a $1.1B annualized pace. The bigger play may be farmers using these as a hedge against rainfall and temperature swings.
🇨🇳 China's crops: Extreme heat and flooding are hurting corn and soybean quality, likely boosting demand for imported corn and sorghum. Soybean imports probably won't get the same lift since China's domestic beans go to food, not feed.
🌵 Drought monitor: Corn Belt conditions held mostly steady, though Wisconsin and Minnesota worsened. Corn 27%, soybeans 28%, winter wheat 56%, spring wheat 80%, and cattle 58% are in some level of drought.
📉 Export sales: Corn sales crashed to a marketing-year low of just 31,200mt, down 87% week-over-week. Soybean sales dipped too, but wheat sales rose 2%, with Mexico leading purchases.
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