In this episode, taken from our May 19 client webinar, our economists unpack a high-stakes U.S. macro outlook shaped by geopolitical conflict, higher energy prices, sticky inflation, and change at the helm of the Federal Reserve. 

US GDP growth held up well in 2025, even as businesses and households faced historically high tariffs, volatility in financial markets and elevated uncertainty. This year brings a new source of risk: war in the Middle East. The U.S. economy should remain resilient in 2026, but growth is expected to slow to 1.6% as elevated oil prices and softer consumer spending weigh on activity.

Our experts also explore why tariffs are still keeping prices elevated, why the Fed is expected to stay on hold through 2026, and why rate cuts are not projected to resume until June 2027.

If you want a clear, scenario-based read on where the U.S. economy may be headed next—and what could change the path—this is the episode to queue up. A sharp, scenario-driven look at the 2026 U.S. economy—from oil shocks and inflation to tariffs, recession risk, and the Fed's next move.

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Credits:

  • Host: Emily Crowley
  • Guests: Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Michael Zdinak, Lawrence Nelson
  • Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
  • Edited By: Marz Marcello
  • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun 

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