Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade.
Why the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend but showing short-term momentum loss
How Katie defines overbought and oversold using the stochastic oscillator
Why the March monthly MACD sell signal became an unusual whipsaw
What the QQQs and Nasdaq 100 are saying about technology leadership
How investors can use stop losses, hedges and moving averages to manage risk
Why the market has held up despite underperformance in the Magnificent Seven
The difference between market breadth and market leadership
Why sector rotation is improving in healthcare, industrials, utilities, insurers and biotech
How sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear and Greed Index fit into market timing
How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF uses trend following, sector rotation, Treasuries and gold
What the charts are saying about emerging markets, developed international stocks and the U.S.
Why gold has moved from a strong bull market into a more tactical trading environment
Timestamps
00:00 Intro 00:58 Why the S&P 500 is losing short-term momentum 05:04 How overbought conditions can reset without a major decline 08:39 Why whipsaws make confirmation so important 12:02 What the QQQs are saying about technology leadership 16:51 How to manage risk with stop losses and hedges 20:07 Why the market held up despite Mag Seven weakness 23:49 How market breadth differs from market leadership 28:14 What sentiment indicators are saying about investor positioning 32:58 Why the market is in a technical void 36:00 Sector rotation beyond technology and semiconductors 40:54 How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF manages drawdowns 46:05 What international stock charts are saying versus the U.S. 50:13 Why markets have been resilient despite geopolitical risk 52:05 What the chart of gold is telling investors now
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