What happens when someone who spends his life thinking about risk, decision-making and human behaviour is confronted with an uncertainty he simply can’t control?
Episode summary My guest is Paul Craven, a behavioural scientist, former investment professional, magician and keynote speaker, and one of my favourite people to talk to. When we sat down to record this episode, I noticed that Paul’s voice sounded different.
His explanation — that he had recently been diagnosed with oral cancer — took our conversation in an unexpected and deeply personal direction.We explore what his experience has taught him about uncertainty, why he deliberately chose not to Google his diagnosis, and the difference between having information and having useful information.
From there, we explore luck and skill, decision and gratitude journals, relationships versus transactions, the dangers of binary thinking, and why sometimes the best thing you can do when you’re in a bad mood is go for a walk in the rain. It’s a conversation about behavioural science, but also about perspective, paying attention and what we discover about ourselves when life doesn’t go according to plan.
Key themes
Living with uncertainty and the psychological value of having a plan
Why more information isn’t always better information
AI, search engines and our desire for certainty
Nuance versus binary thinking
Luck, skill and decision journals
Gratitude and paying attention to what matters
Relationships versus transactions
Storytelling, lived experience and different ways of seeing the world
Chameleon Thinking and the value of changing perspective
Guest Profile - Paul Craven Paul is a behavioural scientist, keynote speaker and former investment professional who brings together insights from psychology, behavioural science, finance and magic to explore how people really think and make decisions.
01:35 — Paul’s diagnosis and living with uncertainty Paul reveals his cancer diagnosis and reflects on why not knowing can sometimes be harder than receiving difficult news.
07:00 — Medicine, empathy and different perspectives What Paul’s experience of the NHS taught him about communication, multidisciplinary thinking and the importance of context.
10:00 — Appreciating life, stories and walking in the rain From Iain McGilchrist and Martin Shaw to Rowan Williams’ wonderfully simple advice for dealing with a bad mood.
17:10 — Reframing, Chameleon Thinking and “All shall be well” Why changing perspective can help us navigate difficult circumstances — including Paul’s own illness.
25:45 — Why Paul chose not to Google his cancer The risks of searching without context, what AI adds to the problem, and why life rarely provides simple binary answers.
31:20 — Luck, skill and keeping journals What investment management can teach us about hindsight, decision quality and the value of both decision and gratitude journals.
37:20 — Relationships, transactions and the limits of efficiency Why trust and relationships matter, and what can be lost when we optimise purely for efficiency.
43:25 — Authenticity, AI and Chesterton’s Fence The value of individuality in an AI-mediated world and why we should understand what we’re discarding before we replace it.
47:10 — Wisdom under every rock Paul brings together the themes of reframing, curiosity and learning from different perspectives.
49:10 — An update on Paul Christian shares encouraging news following Paul’s surgery and looks forward to welcoming him back to the show.
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