The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively contested following the expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, while renewed Houthi activity is threatening shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Despite some tankers continuing to navigate these critical waterways, Brent crude has climbed above US$91 a barrel as markets weigh the risk of deeper supply disruption. How much oil is still getting through, how long can global inventories provide a cushion, and what would it take to send crude back above US$100 a barrel?


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