Likely Super El Niño building: a non-alarmist take on the risks

Today, a sober and thorough look at the risks for key commodities and equities on the powerful El Niño climate phenomenon building in the Pacific, one that could prove the most intense humanity has experienced in many decades. Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy takes you through the potential commodity impacts and reminds us that some areas can see positive outcomes even if key food commodities and even mining output could suffer significant disruptions. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo looks at the impacts for key equity supply chains, insurance and energy. This, a round-up of what to look for in the week ahead as the US dollar is in breakout mode and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Ole's recent thorough survey of the key commodities markets that could see an impact from El Niño
• Ruben's recent piece look at El Niño risks from an equity sector angle, particularly the impact on supply chains.
• As mentioned on today's pod that while the equatorial Pacific is heating up, there is a "cold blob" in the North Atlantic, possibly suggesting something is going wrong with the important AMOC, the critical Atlantic Ocean current system that keeps Europe warm, among other impacts. Craig Tindale made a few comments on the cold blob on X and also links to his longer form post on how we are modeling climate change poorly, not properly appreciating feedback loops that could accelerate our climate impacts. Here is a good, "popular science" look at the AMOC and the feedback loop risks if the Greenland ice melt threatens to shut it down.

About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

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