Analysis found 171 sanctioned vessels near UK waters between June 1 and August 26, with shadow traffic through the Channel almost daily. After the Smyrtos was boarded over a deregistered Cameroon flag, Moscow moved its routes north of Scotland, added warship escorts, and put more tankers under genuine Russian registration. False flags invite seizure, while a real one brings the protections of flag-state jurisdiction. The legal shield is real but narrower than Moscow may hope.

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