As Paul turned 83 last week, he recorded this podcast in his studio office surrounded by piles of articles and notes for future recordings and a good deal of gratitude. He says this may be his favorite podcast he's ever made.
He starts with the two biggest paydays of his life. The first was December 31, 2012, the day he sold his part of the firm he'd started in 1983 and walked into retirement with a promise to his wife that he'd never work for money again. The second happened in the last 48 hours, and not a dollar changed hands. He also has a word of caution for anyone who credits him for what their portfolio has done.
Then an epiphany. After reading a recent Adam Grossman piece in HumbleDollar, Paul began to question whether John Bogle's "stay the course" really belongs as the number one rule for being a successful long-term investor. He took the question to ChatGPT, shares the whole conversation, and comes away with a new rule number one, plus a line he thinks an 18-year-old might still remember at 65.
The third topic is bonds. Paul has been reading a lot of negative commentary about them lately, so he goes back to Table B1 and walks through 56 years of history: how many losing years the S&P 500 had since 1970, how many the short-to-intermediate bond portfolio had, what the worst 12 months and worst 60 months looked like, and why he and his wife hold the mix they do at 83. He also explains why long-term bonds are not the answer, and what the numbers since 1928 say about the premium you get for their extra risk.
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