War in the Middle East keeps expanding, oil prices are rising, and an unpredictable American president has everyone trying to guess his next move. As trust in media institutions hits an all-time low and disinformation spreads online, how can we begin to make sense of things? The proliferation of open-source intelligence, or OSINT, offers one answer. While it's possible to glean certain insights from these sources, they can also mislead people to wrong conclusions or game booming prediction markets. 

In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by friend of the pod Tyler McBrien, managing editor at Lawfare. Tyler recently wrote a piece on the perils of obsessively "monitoring the situation" for The Baffler. He and Jonathan discuss Trump's wars, why prediction markets and geopolitics shouldn't mix, and more. 

Find Tyler on X: https://x.com/TylerMcBrien  

Read Tyler's piece in The Baffler: https://thebaffler.com/latest/situational-unawareness-mcbrien  

Check out Tyler's new series on who blew up the Georgia Guidestones: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/who-blew-up-the-guidestones/id1880399073

Jonathan's piece in The New Republic: https://newrepublic.com/article/208781/trump-iran-venezuela-one-big-war-world

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