When Technology Outruns Commodities (Alex Turnbull)

Alex Turnbull once sent an out-of-work Mongolian translator with a drone to the Chinese border to count coal trucks.

Two years ago he told us data centres were the new EVs, and that silver could get very silly. It was $28 at the time. It hit $100 in January.

The former Goldman special situations banker and founder of Singapore’s Sagax fund is back, and he thinks the critical minerals market is trading on vibes.

Alex covers:

• The Mongolia drone story

• Why critical minerals equities now trade tick for tick with Trump’s polling
• China’s “magic pudding” of diesel, and whether it has run dry
• A jet ski, some explosives and a guidance system: the new veto on global shipping
• Electric haul trucks, and why he thinks BHP will regret its stance
• The photonics breakthrough that could make data centres 20 times more efficient
• Why Caterpillar looks more exposed than copper

• Gallium, germanium and indium: the trades the big houses won’t touch

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TIMESTAMPS  

(0:00) Intro

(01:30) The Mongolia Drone Story

(05:10) Critical Minerals and the Trump Trade

(09:30) The Hormuz Crisis

(13:20) Diesel and Electric Mining Trucks

(19:10) Refining and Fertilizer

(24:20) Coal, Power and Data Centers

(32:20) Data Center Energy Efficiency

(38:40) Copper and Uranium

(44:20) Lithium

(50:10) Gallium, Germanium and Indium

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