Dave Ramsey says retirees can safely withdraw 8% a year from the stock market, but does his retirement planning math actually hold up?
David McKnight breaks down why Ramsey's approach overlooks a critical risk, and why annuities may be the missing piece to sustainably boosting your retirement income beyond the traditional 4% Rule.
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In this episode, David McKnight examines Dave Ramsey's 8% withdrawal rate claim and why retirement planning may need annuities, and not just the stock market.
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For Ramsey, you can take 8% per year out of your stock market portfolio in retirement, despite what other financial planning advisors may say.
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Ramsey believes that advisors suggesting their clients follow the so-called 4% Rule are misadvising their clients.
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Wade Pfau, one of the most respected retirement researchers in the U.S. looked at what would happen if a retiree invested 100% of their money in stocks and took an 8% annual withdrawal each year, adjusted for inflation.
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The attempt to make that money last for 30 years failed in an astounding 63% of the cases.
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David thinks that Ramsey's calculations are flawed because he didn't take into consideration the sequence of returns risk.
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He shares an example that illustrates how Ramsey's 12% growth rate actually ends up falling apart (and costing retirees their hard-earned money).
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Once you're taking distributions, the order in which you experience sequence of returns can make the difference between your money lasting for the rest of your life or running out sooner.
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While David agrees with Ramsey in that retirees shouldn't settle for a 4% withdrawal rate in retirement, he believes that there are more reliable ways to improve upon the 4% Rule.
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The irony is that the most reliable ways to improve upon the 4% Rule is to use financial instruments Ramsey has spent decades telling his audience to avoid.
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Those tools are guaranteed lifetime income annuities and permanent cash value life insurance.
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David discusses the volatility shield, an account outside your stock portfolio that holds 3-5 years of discretionary expenses.
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The idea is to live out of that account in the year following a down year in the stock market.
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That way, your stock portfolio has a chance to recover before you take further distributions.
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This act alone can increase the sustainable withdrawal rate on your stock portfolio from 4% to as high as 8% with a 95% confidence rate.
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David's preferred vehicle for accomplishing that is properly structured, property funded indexed universal life insurance (IUL).
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An Ernst & Young study focused on what happens when you combine investments with permanent life insurance with guaranteed lifetime income annuities.
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What they found is that when you adopt an integrated approach that incorporates both cash value life insurance and annuities, you draw more retirement income with better outcomes than if you relied on investments alone.
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While David agrees with Ramsey's point that a 100% stock allocation in retirement makes sense, there's something he disagrees with – he explains what it is and their views differ.
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"Perhaps, Dave Ramsey isn't wrong about wanting retirees to enjoy an 8% level of income, he's just using the wrong tools to get there", David argues.
