What's the Chance That Jost Will Die on Everest? - WanderLearn: Travel to Transform Your Mind & Life | Lyssna här

In last week’s episode, Jost Kobusch, a 32-year-old German mountaineer who summited Denali in winter, said he had a 20% chance of summiting Everest in winter, alone, without supplemental oxygen, and following a rarely climbed route, the dangerous West Ridge.

In today’s episode, I begin by asking him for his odds of death.

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Timeline

00:00 Chance of dying

03:40 Climbing in the dark

08:45 Getting to base camp

12:30 Lessons from previous Everest climbs

15:30 Biggest worry

18:30 Acclimatization technology

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Transcript

Disclosure: I used AI to generate this transcript, so it may be slightly inaccurate.

Francis: It’s amazing when you take these risks. We just lost Nims Dai, the great climber who did all the fourteen eight-thousand-metre peaks — quite famous, had a Netflix series, etc. — and there are countless others who have died. I can’t imagine that death doesn’t weigh on you. What’s the percentage chance you think — you said about a twenty percent chance you’ll make it, maybe thirty percent, something like that? What about the chance that you just... die? Morbid question, sorry, but I’ve got to be direct.

Jost: I like your questions. You could be German, you know.

Francis: Yeah, I’m definitely not American — Americans are too... Germans are more direct.

Francis: So what do you think? What’s the chance that you’re going to die? I don’t care about your parents, I don’t care whether they’re sponsoring your journey or any of that other stuff. Are you going to die or not?

Jost: I’m of course strongly biased on this question, because — as we all know — you rarely see it coming yourself. You always think, “it’s not going to be me, it’s going to be that guy.” It’s a bit like going to war — you know people die in war, but you think it’s going to be the next guy, not you. So I would definitely not say it’s zero. Even though I think I’m playing it super safe, because ultimately I’ve been on projects where I’ve turned around because it just didn’t align — I go back home. And honestly, as a professional alpinist, I can’t afford to just go and go again — it’s my life savings, holidays pulled together over three years, and I might get fired over the wrong call. So I need to be able to come back, and that gives me a much bigger safety margin, apart from the skill set. But it’s not zero, by definition, because there are risks you cannot calculate. They’re just there — they’re the essence of alpinism. Otherwise it would be a ritualized sport with rules, like basketball or hockey, where you don’t die. Part of alpinism is that risk. So I’d say the percentage is there, but it’s lower single digits.

Francis: Okay, wow. So you’re pretty confident — which, again, makes sense, because you probably wouldn’t be doing this if you felt there was an eighty percent chance of death. Some people might, but it sounds like it’s on your radar; you recognize it, but you’re not treating it as high risk because you’re going to play it as safe as you can.

Jost: As safe as I can. The goal is not the summit — the goal is to survive. Whenever we do alpinism, we put ourselves in danger to survive the danger. When you reach the summit, you haven’t achieved anything yet. The summit in itself isn’t the goal — the goal is to be back down safely. The summit is halfway through the marathon, but the other half is going to be much tougher. That’s the part where you lack attention, where you get injured. You should not mistake the summit for the goal. The real goal is being back home.

Francis: Yeah, and most people who mountaineer die on the way down — that’s where they let their guard down. I remember one guy — a Japanese climber, I think it was around 1980 — the first person to climb Mount McKinley, Denali, in winter. He made it to the summit but didn’t make it back down. He radioed from the summit, and then they never heard from him again. There are countless stories like that, certainly on Everest, of people dying on the way down. So you have to keep that focus. Which brings up another issue — if you make your big push, Jost, from around 7,500 metres straight up over a thousand metres to the summit, it seems like you’d run out of daylight. Even starting at midnight, it seems like a huge push, and you might have to come back down at night since there’s a lot less daylight in winter. What are the logistics? Would you have to spend a night out — because that’s really dangerous, even more so in winter than in May or June?

Jost: First of all, I wouldn’t start as late as midnight — a starting time would be more like 10 p.m. So you move up in the dark, and depending on speed, I might have to call it off. If I feel the pace isn’t sufficient, I’ll call it off — because if you do spend a night out and there’s wind, your chances of survival are extremely low at that altitude, especially bivvying. If you keep moving, if you can keep climbing, it can be fine. For example, when I climbed Denali — the same peak where Naomi Uemura was lost on descent — I kept moving even though it was minus 75 with windchill. It was so cold the liquid in my eyes turned to honey, and when I closed them they froze shut — I had to open them with my fingers. But because I kept moving, it was fine. If you sit down somewhere, most people don’t survive once there’s any wind. So logistically, I now have a significant advantage compared to Uemura and many others: even in the dark in winter — and I descended Denali in the dark in winter — I’m following a GPS track on my watch. Without that, you can get lost, make mistakes, fall. My big advantage is that even in the dark I can keep moving, and through movement I generate heat and make progress. My route will be tracked on the watch — it’s steep, but the watch is accurate enough to guide me back. That’s one of the biggest technological advances in alpinism, in my opinion.

Francis: I imagine you’ll have a good lightweight but very powerful headlamp too.

Jost: Of course. And I’ll have a power bank to charge it in case it fails, and a power bank for the watch too, because we’re talking extreme temperatures and many, many hours. There are also some key metrics I’ll be checking to decide whether it makes sense to continue. One big change this time: on the previous three attempts, I was really just focused on learning. Now, for the first time, I’m mentally allowing myself to plan the expedition so that I’m actually set up for a potential summit push. Everything I’ve learned over the years is going into this expedition, and I’m slowly aligning it more toward the summit itself. That feels different mentally, because I’m now actually visualizing the summit push — I’ve already scouted the place I’d start it from. It feels more tangible than ever before, and I feel as prepared as I’ve ever been.

Francis: That’s great to hear. What about the logistics of getting from Kathmandu to Everest Base Camp? Normally that route is shut down in winter — very few people make the classic trek. Are you going with yaks, on foot, or by helicopter? What’s your plan?

Jost: I’ll first be in the Annapurna region, then the Manaslu region, for acclimatization, focusing on first ascents. Then at the start of November I’ll relocate to Lukla — a normal flight route — and stay there a bit for training, because an expedition itself isn’t good training, so I need training blocks in between. Then I’m looking at some first ascents in the Khumbu region, to acclimatize further and explore. As for equipment: traditionally you’d use yaks and a lot of gear — a kitchen tent, dining tent, shower tent, personal tent, a cook, a second cook, and so on, plus a lot of food. My logistics are very light, for two reasons. First, I honestly don’t need much — I’m a solo climber. Second, the impact — both on the environment and the budget — is much smaller without heavy infrastructure. I’ll have 75 kilograms of equipment carried by three porters. My idea is to employ three people who carry rather than give the money to one driver — a bit of social sustainability. It’s low season, there are fewer jobs, so in a way I’m providing work for three people instead of one. They just carry the equipment to base camp, and from there I carry everything myself. The logistics couldn’t be simpler.

Francis: Is the base camp the same as the famous Everest base camp most Khumbu Icefall expeditions launch from, or is it different since you’re going up the West Ridge?

Jost: The West Ridge doesn’t change the starting location — I’ll just walk a bit further, maybe a kilometre in a different direction than people heading for the Khumbu Icefall. What’s significantly different is that I won’t be staying at base camp itself — I’ll be staying in Lobuche, in a lodge. That’s also how I avoid bringing hundreds of kilos up there, and honestly it’s way more comfortable, because winter at Everest base camp is extremely uncomfortable — very windy, strong winds that destroy your tents, so cold that even in your down suit at breakfast the honey turns to glass — nothing you put on your bread works. So you have soup instead.

Francis: Speaking of which, what are some things you learned from your previous Everest expeditions that you’re definitely doing differently this time?

Jost: One example — don’t bring honey. It only works from around eleven o’clock, once the sun’s on the tent. But there are bigger learnings too. One is the route itself — the lower section I’m climbing hasn’t been climbed in about thirty years, and the way I’m combining it is a variation that’s never been climbed in that combination. I wouldn’t call it a new route — more a variant, my own creation, a logical line for me as a solo climber. That came with a lot of challenges early on, because you don’t know where to go — whether it’s rock climbing, ice climbing, or mixed climbing, you’re searching for good passages. On the first expedition it took me four to six weeks just to find the way up to six thousand metres. On the second, ten days. On the third, two or three days — so you can see the rapid progress. Then there’s the weather — you get to know how the weather and ice conditions work, which is all related. In the meantime I’ve developed a tent specifically for this expedition, better clothing, a watch face that shows me exactly the data I need, a one-piece suit to wear under the down suit and another over it. Right now, together with Alpinist Lab, I’m developing overboots that go over my eight-thousand-metre boots to make them warmer, and we’re building a backpack that’s ninety litres but only five hundred grams. There’s a lot of engineering that goes into it — sunglasses, gear — I’m genuinely a gear nerd about these things. But I think the biggest learning of all, performance-wise, is building a better acclimatization strategy and schedule — through the expeditions themselves, but also through actual research and testing of my body, and developing the protocols further.

Francis: Speaking of acclimatization — is that the thing that keeps you up at night, or is there something else you’re most worried about? The weather? Acclimatization? Gear failure? Is there something that stands out?

Jost: Acclimatization is probably the key factor for success, but that’s something within my control — and I’m a control freak. I like to control the risk, the route, the logistics, everything. There’s a reason I don’t work in a corporate job with a boss telling me what to do. What worries me most — or rather, the most unpredictable factor — is the wind. If the wind is strong enough, you get no chance at all. You can forget it and go home. One season I was there and it was so windy it knocked me onto all fours just walking around base camp — and you can imagine, a few thousand metres higher, the wind speed was around two hundred kilometres per hour. It’s simply impossible — you’d literally get picked up and blown away. It’s a deal-breaker, full stop.

Francis: Is there any way to mitigate that — weather forecasts, that sort of thing?

Jost: Weather forecasts are good for the next three days — if you’re lucky, maybe five. So yes, I use a weather forecast, but it’s more of an estimation of what might happen than a certainty. I don’t think you should focus too much on it. If the data’s accurate, great — but if a report shows bad conditions two weeks out, I try not to spend energy worrying about it, because the picture might completely change by the next day. If you’re too caught up in what might happen in the future, you’re not present, you’re not resting, your system doesn’t relax. I’ve seen this in other expeditions — people over-interpreting forecasts that aren’t even that accurate yet, spinning a whole story around them and getting freaked out. Of course I use a weather report, it’s important — but if it shows something two weeks out, it barely enters my consciousness.

Francis: In the couple of minutes we have left — a lot of expeditions have been using those altitude chambers people set up at home, simulating five, six, seven thousand metres, to acclimatize in comfort. And there’s also the xenon gas approach — I think there was an expedition that summited Everest in four or five days using it. What do you think of these strategies, and are you using either?

Jost: Let’s start with xenon gas. I think it’s a good example of something that may or may not be beneficial. To use it properly you’d need to talk to an expert — I don’t even know how to administer it. It was a smart idea to try, because we don’t really know if it works or not — maybe there’s enough belief in it that it does, and a specific tour operator is offering that method. But let’s be honest, they all use supplemental oxygen anyway — so is it the xenon that’s helping, or just more oxygen? I don’t know. I don’t climb with oxygen myself, and from what I’ve read about xenon scientifically, I don’t see the benefit. As for the ethics — I don’t think it’s unethical to use, as long as you disclose it. The only unethical thing in alpinism is doing something and not sharing it, not communicating it, hiding it — that’s unethical.

Francis: And you’ve already said you don’t want extra oxygen anyway, so xenon’s automatically out for you. What about acclimatizing in a hypobaric — or is it called a barometric — chamber?

Jost: Xenon might stimulate something beneficial, but it’s not solid enough evidence for me to use. What you’re describing is actually what we’d call a normobaric altitude tent, as opposed to a hypobaric chamber. Hypobaric means lower pressure; normobaric means normal pressure. When we’re at the summit of Everest, the percentage of oxygen in the air is actually similar to sea level — what changes is the pressure, since the molecules are spread further apart. To simulate a real pressure change you’d need big, expensive machinery with solid walls. But by simply lowering the oxygen percentage at normal pressure, you can mimic the altitude effect. So I sleep in a tent at home — just a tent around my normal bed — with a machine blowing in air that has a lower oxygen percentage, same pressure. Personally, I’ll say your body responds much better to real altitude than to this. I use it in addition to real altitude, to maintain acclimatization. My acclimatization for this expedition actually started back in July, when I climbed a seven-thousander in Kyrgyzstan. Then I went home and used the normobaric tent in combination with a specific protocol I’ve developed for climbing four-thousand-metre peaks in the Alps — and that protocol is what’s going to help me maintain acclimatization while still being able to train.

Francis: Excellent. Well, Jost, I wish you the best of luck. We won’t be talking again until you get there, and I’m hoping we can do a short interview then — but if we can’t, I understand, I’ll definitely catch you on the way back and get your account of it. Remind everybody where to find you — I’ll put it in the show notes.

Jost: My Instagram, and check out my YouTube channel — I put out two videos a month, and they’re really well done. I’m biased, of course, but—

Francis: No, they really are well done — I can vouch for that, I subscribe and watch every one you put out. Very professional. I’ll link both the YouTube channel and Instagram in the show notes.

Jost: Perfect — check out the YouTube channel, I’ll be taking everyone along on the journey to Everest, with new episodes coming out of the expedition.

Francis: And Jost, we’ll try to arrange a call while you’re on the expedition to update everyone on things people won’t see on the YouTube channel.

Jost: Okay, awesome.

Francis: Well, best of luck and good preparation — I really respect and admire what you’re doing, Jost.

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