$1 trillion AI capex by 2028: Justified or inflated?

Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex.

In episode 82 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Tom O'Malley, Equity Research Analyst for US Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, debate whether today’s rapid AI adoption is enough to justify that level of capex or if real-world constraints will force expectations lower.

Listeners can learn more about this topic:

• Barclays Brief Ep 25: The cusp of a capex super cycle
• AI gets physical: Innovation meets opportunity

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:

• Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028
• Powering AI: Gas Turbines Could Make or Break AI Ambitions

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