Closed? Not Even Close—Oil Keeps Moving, but So Do Red Flags

1. Strait of Hormuz Situation

• Iran claimed multiple times that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.
• However, actual shipping traffic continued, including oil and LNG tankers.
• U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated:
  • Iran does not control the strait
  • Passage remains open and monitored
• Data cited:
  • ~55 merchant ships transit per day
  • ~17 million barrels of oil moving through

2. Maritime Risk & Behavior

• Ships are:
  • Turning off AIS tracking systems for safety
  • Operating cautiously due to military tensions
• Traffic has:
  • Fluctuated (e.g., 26 ships one day → 5 the next)
  • Not returned to “normal pre-conflict levels”

3. U.S.–Iran Negotiations (MoU)

• A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed:
  • Covers nuclear issues, sanctions, and broader conflict
• Includes:
  • Potential release of frozen Iranian funds
  • Conditional progress requirements

Key issue:

• Concern over how Iran will use funds
• Oversight mechanism proposed via Qatar
• Funds may be used for:
  • Food purchases (e.g., American soybeans)

4. Nuclear Program Concerns

• Iran has:
  • Agreed (in principle) to allow inspectors
• But:
  • U.S. officials express skepticism
  • Historical distrust is repeatedly emphasized

5. Economic Implications

• Oil prices:
  • Declining (~$74/barrel) due to optimism
• Markets:
  • Near record highs
• Strait stability is linked directly to:
  • Global energy supply
  • Economic stability

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