US inflation in April reached its highest level in three years, driven in part by the war in Iran. The volume of oil flows affected by the conflict is three times larger than the disruption caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, yet many firms – especially in the US – don't seem too concerned. According to our analysts, they should be.
Join us for an enlightening, if not light-hearted, discussion about the impact of this crisis and how it affects the economic future for the US, Europe, and the global economy.
Our guests:
Jane Foley, Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy, RaboResearch
Christian Lawrence, Head of Americas & Energy Market Strategy, RaboResearch
Joe DeLaura, Senior Energy Strategist, RaboResearch
Relevant time stamps:
2:11 – The US-Israel campaign against Iran and the immediate energy market shock.
6:52 – Why markets could be underestimating the length and impact of the crisis.
14:02 – The macroeconomic, inflationary, and consumer impacts of higher energy prices.
27:04 – Implications of the Iran war for Fed policy and interest rates.
31:21 – How the conflict is shifting our perspectives on globalization and geopolitics.
44:43 – Broader macroeconomic themes: taxes, tariffs, European growth, and the economic growth outlook for the rest of the year.
Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.
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