05: Models and predictions: Basic ingredients, dimensionless numbers, predictions versus predictability - and what can go wrong, 10.08.2017

05 | 0:00:00 start 0:02:19 Structure of Talk 0:02:54 Introduction 0:09:08 The purpose of models 0:15:55 Basic ingredients of models 0:19:26 Predictability and determinism 0:22:43 Nonlinear effects (Deterministic chaos) 0:27:46 Verification of models –– ''non–verifiable'' models 0:30:07 Verification of models –– no-analog communities 0:32:19 Computing models –– alternatives to general relativity 0:35:37 Computing models –– heuristic vs. physically based models 0:40:31 Extrapolation of models 0:44:28 Constituents of Climate Models 0:45:27 Climate Models: Basic variables 0:46:41 Climate Models: System of equations 0:47:23 Climate Models: Initial and boundary conditions 0:47:55 Climate Models: Straightforward solutions of the equations 0:51:25 Model zoo: Increasing complexity of models 0:53:18 Climate Models: Practical problems 0:55:52 Forecast: Changing boundary conditions 0:56:54 Forecast: Changing boundary conditions 0:57:56 Summary