As usual the headline doesn’t tell the story. The numbers often get revised for previous months. This time revisions to April and May, combined with a falling unemployment rate, tell a much weaker story than the headline suggests.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June. That is already a modest number for an economy of this size. But April was revised down by 31,000 jobs, from 179,000 to 148,000. May was revised down by 43,000, from 172,000 to 129,000. Together, those two prior months contained 74,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.
Revisions are a normal part of survey-based data. More employers respond, seasonal factors are recalculated, and the estimate becomes more complete. The issue is not that revisions occur. The issue is that investors, lenders, and policymakers often react to the first estimate as though it were precise. In this case, the revised trend is materially softer than the original narrative.
Now let us compare the payroll survey with the household survey. In June, the household survey estimated that employment fell by 507,000 people. The civilian labor force contracted by 720,000. The number of people outside the labor force increased by 832,000. At the same time, the official unemployment rate declined from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent.
To be counted as unemployed, a person must be without work and actively looking for work. When someone stops looking, that person leaves the labor force and disappears from the unemployment calculation. So the unemployment rate can fall even while employment falls, provided the labor force shrinks faster.
That is exactly why the participation rate matters. It fell three tenths of a percentage point in June, to 61.5 percent. The employment-to-population ratio also fell, to 59.0 percent. Those measures are not perfect, but together they show that a smaller share of the working-age population was either employed or participating in the job market.
------------
**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
