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In this week’s GAR Capital Market Intelligence Report, we examine how cooler inflation data, resilient economic growth, escalating United States and Iran tensions, and a historic semiconductor unwind reshaped market leadership.
We break down why oil posted its strongest weekly gain since the conflict began, how attacks on Gulf infrastructure and threats against the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb increased the risk to global energy flows, and why refined products such as diesel and heating oil remain a larger inflation threat than crude oil alone.
The episode also explores the violent rotation out of semiconductors, memory stocks, and crowded artificial intelligence momentum trades. Strong earnings from ASML, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, and Samsung confirmed that demand remains healthy, yet the stocks continued falling as leverage, options positioning, and crowded ownership overwhelmed fundamentals.
We also discuss China’s new Kimi model and why lower cost artificial intelligence systems could force Wall Street to reconsider the expected returns from massive hyperscaler spending.
Beyond technology, we examine the strength in equal weighted equities, healthcare, financials, industrials, transports, utilities, and energy. The broader market remains healthier than the Nasdaq suggests, indicating rotation rather than indiscriminate liquidation.
We also cover Treasury markets, falling rate hike expectations, the return of bonds as a safe haven, subdued dollar volatility, Bitcoin, gold, and the risk that post expiration market structure could produce larger directional moves.
Finally, we preview the most important catalysts ahead, including Google earnings, hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance, Micron and SK Hynix results, refined product prices, and whether the artificial intelligence complex can stabilize after one of its sharpest drawdowns of the cycle.
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