The viral claim says illegal immigration caused home prices to rise 30%. The Fed paper said something different, and the difference matters.
A new working paper on unauthorized immigration and housing prices is being used across social media to argue that Biden's illegal immigration surge caused a 30% rise in home prices and 20% rise in rents. But the actual claim was about 30% of home price growth in the average metro area studied, not a direct 30% increase caused by immigration.
This matters because supply and demand are real. Adding millions of people to a housing market with restricted supply raises prices. But zoning laws, permitting delays, rent control, building codes, high interest rates, federal debt, and monetary policy all matter too.
Austin gives a real-world example of what happens when a city makes it easier to build: rents can fall. The housing crisis is not solved by pretending immigration has no effect, and it is not solved by pretending immigration is the whole story.
Chapters: 00:00 Supply and demand still exists 01:15 The Fed paper controversy resurfaces 03:00 What the New York Post headline claimed 03:45 What the article actually said 05:15 What the Fed paper measured 07:15 30% of the increase is not 30% increase 09:45 Why housing price indexes differ 13:15 Left denial vs right exaggeration 14:00 The real housing supply problem 20:15 Austin's rent drop and building reforms 23:45 Why viral right-wing framing misses the root cause 27:45 Do not give your opponents an easy win
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